Regular readers of this website and those who follow me on social media my opinion of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. I have long felt Russia was the most dangerous potential adversary for the United States geopolitically. Nobody should question how I feel about the Russian invasion of Crimea, a clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty.  The handling of Russia has been poor through the last two administrations, and that pattern has led to the Russian megalomaniac believing he will face no meaningful international consequences for his actions.

Neville Chamberlin’s stand on Nazi Germany and Hitler could be considered ironclad, proactive and tough compared to the way the United States has handled Russia since George W. Bush’s ascension to the Presidency.  Thirteen years of appeasement has led us to where we are today. Much like Hitler, Putin uses the protection of Russian ethnic communities or Russian economic interests to intervene. Unlike Hitler, he has a significant amount of leverage through his supplying of energy resources to western Europe in addition to a large network of alliances based on hostility to the west he has built globally.

No person had more influence over George W. Bush’s foreign policy decisions than Condoleezza Rice, who was considered a Russia expert but was really merely a Russophile.  People recall Bush’s infamous “I looked into his eyes” comment regarding Putin on their first meeting. My sense even at the time was that Bush was simply praising Putin and wanting positive engagement in deference to Rice. Bush didn’t have much of a background or opinion on Russian affairs and thus deferred to Rice then the National Security Advisor.

As the Iraq War approached and as traditional allies abandoned the United States (except the UK whose negative experience in Iraq probably means they won’t commit troops to another American led ground war for many years) Rice stated “Punish France, ignore Germany, forgive Russia.” This proved to be an absurd notion. We needed the French and Germans in the future as has been proven multiple times since 2003 while Russia took the lesson that they could buck the Americans and “earn” forgiveness. France and Germany were important economic allies in the western bloc of nations while Russia was continuing on the road to becoming a pariah state.

In late 2004, the Orange Revolution broke out in favor of westernization in Ukraine, but Bush was wishy washy in supporting the protests perhaps because he was bogged down by the Iraq War. In 2008, when Kosovo declared their independence from Serbia (A Russian satellite state) the United States along with the other leading western nations gave quick diplomatic recognition. However, Russia fought this and instead of using the desire of Putin to prevent a Muslim majority state in Europe from becoming independent as a propaganda tool in the muslim world, we allowed Putin to influence a majority of muslim nations motivated by anti-Americanism to NOT recognize Kosovo and “stick it” to the USA.

During the Georgia war later in 2008  the American response under Bush and Rice (now the Secretary of State) was flat footed and inept. The conflict which revolved around South Ossetia was resolved with the United States sitting as a helpless bystander while the world watched in horror. Russia under Putin got their way.

Enter President Obama; Anyway you look at it President Obama’s handling of Russia over five years has been poor. Putin has with minimal American opposition been allowed to continue occupying two provinces of Georgia which he invaded in 2008, continue using energy resources as a stick to beat over the head of the west,  gagged the media, passed discriminatory measures against LGBT citizens of Russia and allowed a pattern of overt racism in public (particularly at football matches where foreign black players are subjected to monkey chants and open letters from fans about the need to keep soccer “pure” racially) to permeate Russian society at many levels. While the coddling of Russia began under notable Russophile Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State it has continued under President Obama. In 2012, Mitt Romney warned America about the dangers of Russia in his nomination acceptance speech in Tampa. At the time I told friends and tweeted on social media that even though I was a big Obama backer, Romney had made the most important foreign policy statement of the campaign, one I hoped the President would heed. Unfortunately, events overtook Obama completely the following year as Putin’s bullying behavior well-established from the Bush years took on a whole new dimension, which the President despite some effort was unable to prevent. 

Russia is a dangerous adversary and while I do not like war and do not support the constant calls from my brethren on the left to intervene in foreign wars for humanitarian reasons, Russia to me is an overriding global threat to our economic security, our global hegemony (not hubris like the Bush administration but our ability to use soft power to promote a liberal global agenda is why I want American power to remain strong internationally) and most importantly to our value system.

By allowing Putin to fill the leadership vacuum with regards to Syria gave the Russian leader an increased stature abroad and furthered his anti-American credentials. This allowed the Russian leader to be regarded in heroic terms by many in the developing world while in reality he was simply gearing up for another effort at imperialism and expansionism.

The invasion of Ukrainian territory was just the latest outrage from Putin. But after years of appeasement we may be helpless in trying to impact Putin’s behavior. International sporting bodies such as the IOC and FIFA have rewarded Putin in giving him the 2014 Winter Olympics and the 2018 World Cup. The United States has appeased Putin time and again by disengaging from hot spots involving him and getting bogged down in the Middle East. Western Europe has tried to take a firmer line with Putin, particularly the British under Tony Blair’s Labour Government, but the ability of Russia to manipulate energy supplies has prevented being tougher. 

Ultimately when it comes down to it, we might just have to sit and watch Putin do what he wants in Ukraine. That is in itself a defeat for American prestige, American values and the West as a whole.