In 2012, the Democrats snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, leaving multiple house candidates out to dry late in the election cycle. In many of these seats the GOP won by a very small margins, the Democratic candidates had recruited themselves or had been recruited by a local party. Democrats picked up six seats but in a reapportionment year where a partisan gerrymander was replaced by maps drawn under the “Fair Districts” standard more opportunities were available. Additionally, nine seats won by President Obama in his successful reelection effort were carried by GOP House candidates.
All toll the Democrats at the state level choose not to play at all in eight districts that could have been swung with minimal effort in a Presidential year. Benchmark polling and other indicators as to what make a winnable seat especially in a reapportionment cycle were largely ignored.
Bad decision making about targeting of races coupled with an inability or unwillingness to reallocate resources strategically based on circumstances damaged the potential for a watershed moment where the Democrats could have been positioned to remake the map of the Florida Legislature in short order.
Better planning and more openness could have made a good day a great day for Florida Democrats.
As we continue our ongoing series on the Florida Democratic Party we will take a look at what is happening with the House campaigns entering 2014 and give some sense as to how things are progressing. By my estimation the Democrats currently hold two seats that the GOP should have, HD-29 (Clelland) and HD-65 (Zimmerman). Three to four more could be won by the Republicans in the right situation. However, according to my numbers, the GOP currently holds 15 to 18 seats that are winnable in the right circumstance for Democrats. As stated above, about half of these seats should already be held by Democrats if candidates had been either recruited or backed in districts Obama carried.
It would seem that with Charlie Crist potentially the Democratic nominee and the changing demographic trends throughout much of the state that the House Democrats would rue their mistakes last cycle and correct them this cycle. One would think with the continued irrelevance of Democrats in the process on the House side, despite the euphoria of recent national election victories in the state more would be done.
However as we will get into the next few days things are not on the same trajectory at this point in the cycle as they were in 2012 or 2010. In fact, the last time I saw this much indecision and confusion was in 2002, a reapportionment year when the Republicans drew a highly partisan map. Even in bad cycles like 1998, 2004 and 2010 the Democrats had clearer ideas as to targeting, messaging and infrastructure by the time the Legislative Session rolled around.
The change in House leadership in the middle of the cycle has been largely responsible for the setbacks House Democrats have suffered, more factors come into play that we will explore in the coming days.
The Florida Squeeze 
Simply put we are headed for a train wreck and everyone knows it.
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It’s a disaster. Trust me.
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I don’t know who you are, so how can I trust you? 🙂
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There are 44 House races where Republicans do not have an opponent; so much for Democratic candidate recruiting. This will be another wasted cycle by the FDP.
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Florida Democrats still haven’t learned from the 2010 debacle of state elections. They still hold on to the same incompetent staff in Tallahassee, who do nothing but take a paycheck from party donations. For the past six years they have been hiding behind the Obama campaign team and taking credit for wins that came as a result of the Obama team being in Florida. We are five months out from the state primary and still don’t have a slate of candidates for the Florida Cabinet. What does that tell you about the Florida democratic party leadership.
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Very well said.
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Let’s not forget how bad the local leadership is. Doing their best to keep the Glass Ceiling intact.
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As usual, excellent observations Kartik!
But you’re being too kind!
Let’s get to the point. The ultra-liberal crowd that’s supporting Nan Rich (who by the way doesn’t have a prayer of being Governor against Charlie Crist – but that’s for another day) supported their “savior” Allison Tant to become state party Chair, at the arm twisting of Democratic delegates, of Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Sen Nelson.
And what was the consequences?
The worst fundraising in the history of the party (after we were promised more).
And the most important overlooked issue of them all the continued incompetency of Christian Ulvert and Scott Arceneaux and their equally worthless band of incompetent paid consultants from Miami, Tallahassee, Chicago and DC who the party pays millions of dollars, that the party doesn’t have, to continually loose races around the state.
Don’t be fooled by the Amanda Murphy and Carl Zimmerman wins. They caught on quickly to the Ulvert – Arceneaux- Tant BS from Tallahassee and ran their own campaigns grass roots style. Ask them, and all the House Dems how firing the longtime House fundraiser Jeff Ryan is going.
Very Poorly!
Keep it up, Kartik! We Need You!
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You’ll enjoy part 2, coming tomorrow.
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[…] we discussed earlier this week, Florida’s House Democrats left countless opportunities to pick up new seats on the table in 2012. But the party did make progress towards becoming more relevant in a legislative process which has […]
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Don’t worry! Christian Ulvert is on it, so everything will be fine!!
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That’s EXACTLY what every Democrat should be worried about.
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[…] Are House Democrats prepared for 2014? (via The Florida Squeeze) […]
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