Trotter’s Take: Party/Ideology support starting to solidify in governors race. Good news for Crist.

quinnipiac_pollWith the race for Florida’s governor little over ten months away, poll numbers regarding the race is going to start being a regular occurrence. As predicted, the gap between former Gov. Charlie Crist in current Gov. Rick Scott has lessened. But even though this is the case, Crist still leads in all the polls of the been conducted from reputable polling firms.

Yesterday, Quinnipiac University released a poll which shows that Charlie Crist still has a commanding lead over Rick Scott. Overall, former Gov. Crist has eight point lead over Rick Scott, 46% to 38%. In comparison to the latest PPP polls, it seems as if Crist is starting to solidify some of his support among both Democratic and liberal voters. The PPP poll that was conducted recently showed that Charlie Crist might be having trouble with these voters. But the numbers that Quinnipiac released today seems to be more in line with reality. Not only is Charlie Crist increasing his support among his voters, this new poll confirms that Rick Scott is also solidifying his support on both the right and with Republican voters.

So let’s look at the numbers of the last two polls and compare what we see.

If we look at Rick Scott’s numbers, his favorability rating among Republicans has increased from 58% to 73%. As far as Democrats approving of Rick Scott, his numbers slightly moved going down from 19% in the PPP poll to 14% in the Quinnipiac poll. What is interesting, though, is that his favorability rating amongst independents has increased from 26% to 40%. Therefore, looking at partisanship, it seems as if Scott has improved slightly, but independent still view him unfavorably.

Looking at Charlie Crist’s favorability, Republican still view him in a negative light with both polls showing only a 17% favorability rating for Crist. But favorability among Democrats has increased substantially, going from 52% in the PPP poll to 67% in the Quinnipiac poll. Crist also saw an increase in independent support going from 35% in the PPP poll to 44% in this latest poll.

When looking at a match up, Republican voters are nearly identical in the two polls. But when looking at Democratic voters, Crist now carries 81% of their vote compared to only 6% for Rick Scott. This is a far cry from the PPP poll which showed Crist with only 66% Democratic support and with Rick Scott having an unheard of 20% Democratic support. Therefore, we are now starting to see a pure partisan race. As far as independent voters, Charlie Crist has remained unchanged while Rick Scott has had a 9% increase from 23% to 32%.

Looking at ideology, liberals are also starting to support Charlie Crist more. In the PPP poll, roughly 70% of liberals supported Charlie Crist. But in this recent poll, that number now jumps to 78%. As far as moderate voters, the numbers between the two polls remain relatively unchanged. The same holds true for Republican voters.

As far is Nan Rich is concerned, her numbers still remain quite low. 86% of those who were polled said they did not know about Sen. Rich. In the match up against Rick Scott, Rich takes 37% of the vote with Scott still in the lead. 37% seems to be the benchmark that any Democratic candidate will get in a general election against Rick Scott.

Many have said that Charlie Crist needs to identify himself more as a Democrat and as a liberal. Over the last few weeks he has attempted to do this by taking staunch liberal stances on economic issues instead of being the moderate that he sold himself as previously. This is now starting to show in the polls with Democratic and liberal support solidly behind the former governor.

This brings up two important questions that need to be asked. First, can Nan Rich continue in this race? She has not been able to identify with the voters as her “unknown” numbers remain quite high. And with liberals now rallying behind Crist  in a general election match up against Scott, there is less concern that Crist would not be able to turn out progressive voters. Still, Sen. Rich’s entry into the race has forced Crist to become more progressive on economic issues. If she was not in the race, Crist would probably continue to take the center road. So in that sense, Rich has done Crist and the Democratic Party a favor inspite of the hostility large portions of the establishment have shown towards to her.

The second question is in regards to Crist’s ideology. Many are worried that if Charlie Crist wins the nomination, he will then move to the center once the general election campaign begins. But these polling numbers are actually showing that having a liberal message can win a general election. Again, only 17% of conservatives and 12% of Republicans now say they will vote for Crist. Therefore, he has already lost any possible center-right voters that he relied on earlier. But now, it seems as if he does not need the center-right’s support to win this election.

Overall, this is a great poll for Charlie Crist. It is showing that becoming more liberal in his views and rhetoric is starting to pay off in Democrat support as well as in a general election match up against Rick Scott. This poll gives Chris the best of both worlds, and he should be quite pleased with the results.

15 comments

  1. […] Trotter’s Take: Party/Ideology support starting to solidify in governors race. Good news for C… […]

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  2. Dave, Thank you for the love and respect you showed Nan. Whether she ultimately wins or loses her presence is the most important thing that could happen to the people of Florida. That said, what a great poll. Not all the crap about Crist and Scott. One question that was asked was the most telling. The Question…. Who would you vote for Rick Scott or Nan Rich. Nan continues to close the gap. 41 to 37%. That leaves 22% undecided, which is not surprising because of Nan’s lack of name recognition. Can Nan beat Rick Scott? You bet your sweet ass she can. Which blows the theory that Crist operatives keep spinning about her viability. Furthermore Crist’s refusal to debate Nan is a big mistake. As I’ve said from the beginning, he can run but he can’t hide.Now, back to polling. The first poll that comes out to show among likely democratic primary voters, Nan against Charlie will expose the grassroots support, loyalty and passion that no other poll has shown. That’s the time when you can talk to me about polls. The primary is the thing.

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    1. Dave Trotter · ·

      And where do you get this insight that Nan and Christ are close in the primary votes? Would be pretty interesting when 75-80% of Democrats still don’t know who she is.

      Oh, and this “passion” thing again. Did it help Dean, Brown, Perot, Kucinich or Paul. You lack being pragmatic Joe.

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      1. Dave you keep missing the point. Poll people who will likely vote in the Dem. primary. I also know what you don’t know. So as I have been saying. Don’t count your chicken Charlies before they are hatched..

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    2. And there is another flaw in what you say. As every poll shows, an overwhelming majority of Democratic voters don’t know who Nan Rich is. That means that if she is close to Crist, it is solely as an anti-Crist vote. Therefore her campaign had not done anything.

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    3. What do you “know”, oh magical one?

      I mean, honestly, it doesn’t take being a rocket surgeon to figure out that it would be hard to win a primary with 80% of the people not knowing who you are.

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  3. If you look at the demographics behind the Q poll, I would get too excited Charlie Crist.

    27% REP vs 36% in the 2010 governor’s race. 42% IND/OTH vs 29% in 2010

    68% WHITE vs 74% white in 2010.

    15% under age 30 vs 8% in 2010.

    Their sampling seems really skewed and certainly benefits the DEM

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    1. Then St. Pete Polls might be more the your liking.

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  4. I prefer Rich to Crist. However Joe Rich is completely irrelevant in this race at this point. Democrats either have to except CC as the nominee or except Scott for four more years. It’s too bad but that’s reality.

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    1. Tyler if you prefer nan Rich then vote for her in the primary. Don’t allow another election to be bought.

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    2. I somewhat agree. But there is a systemic problem with her campaign. Nan has been running for governor for almost a year and a half and still over 70% of Democratic voters have no idea who she is. That is not Nan’s fault whatsoever, but is entirely her campaign’s fault.

      My opinion…she should fire her entire staff. She has to hold someone accountable for the poor performance of the campaign, and she needs to shake things up. She needs to let everyone go from the campaign manager to the janitor who empties the trash cans at night. She needs a total restructuring.

      The problem is that she spends more time at Democratic clubs than she does meeting voters. Those who go to Democratic clubs already know who she is and already know if they are supporting her or not. It is a complete waste of time. Same thing goes with liberal organizations who are in the same boat. She is wasting her time preaching to the choir. Then you have people like Joe Kreps who is patting her on the back, telling her she is doing a great jobs, while in reality her campaign is crashing and burning into a ball of fire because nobody is taking a leadership role in the campaign, and only telling her what she wants to hear instead of the truth! She isn’t doing what it takes to win! That is why Rob Ford, a mayor of a city in another country, probably has a higher name ID than Nan Rich in Florida.

      In addition, her campaign seems really closed when it comes to advice. A few months ago, her communications director, Jenny Busby, sent out a mass email about a poll that was seriously flawed. Even the major media outlets questioned the poll. It was amateur night at the Improv! When I received this email, I emailed Jenny Busby explaining that the email might not have been a good idea, since the poll was highly criticized by everyone. I never received a response. Not even a “thank you, we will consider this”. Nothing!

      And her website perfectly shows how poorly her campaign is doing. Look at the “issues” part. Nothing on the economy? Nothing on transportation? Nothing on growth or water management? And #1 on the list is “Election Law”? SERIOUSLY!?!?!?!

      And does this piss me off? Damn straight it does, because Nan does not deserve this! She deserves a better team that will help her win, pure and simple. But what has her campaign team accomplished up to this point? Not a damn thing! They have been a disservice to Nan, and that is quite sad!

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      1. Dave, Thank you for your advice. You made some good points. Unfortunately you are not very knowledgeable about the campaign. Also you don’t know anything about me. Stay tuned. Maybe, just maybe you will be amazed…………

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      2. True, I don’t have knowledge about the campaign itself. All I know is that they have failed to promote Senator Rich to the electorate, which is a disservice to her.

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    3. “Quid pro quo,” was how Rothstein described his relationship with Crist. He did favors for the then Republican governor, who has since switched parties and is seeking his old job back as a Democat. In return, Crist did favors for him, he said. His words were compounded when a photo of him hugging Crist was beamed on a screen for jurors to see.
      As an example of how he and Crist worked together, he pointed to his work on the Judicial Nominating Commission for the West Palm Beach-based 4th District Court of Appeal. After Crist appointed him, he said he would regularly consult the governor on which of the applicants should get the nod. When the search committee selected finalists, Rothstein said he made sure those Crist wanted were on the list.
      Further, he said, he talked to Crist about who the governor should appoint to vacancies on the Broward County bench. He urged Crist to appoint those he believed would make favorable rulings for his law firm once they donned their judicial robes.
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      You, BJ Shawd, Wendy Sejour and Susan Smith like this.

      Joe Kreps This will not be found in Charlies Book……
      12 hours ago · Like

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  5. Patience is a virtue………….Timing is the difference between winning and losing.

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