The political landscape in Florida has changed a great deal in the past decade, but the more that changes, even more stays the same. Florida’s Democrats appear fearful of nominating perceived liberal candidates from southeast Florida like Nan Rich and are again discussing the need to place “moderate” Democrats in key races. Yet the track record of Florida’s Democrats on such matters is pitiful at best. Rich has very quietly but efficiently built a strong grassroots campaign, a campaign which many party elders seem eager to ignore or worse yet sabotage. Her campaign infrastructure could be of great use to the party and her willingness to take on tough issues could be helpful to defining Rick Scott and the Republican Legislature on any number of matters. But as of yet I have seen little effort by the state party and the incoming State House Leadership to coordinate or even piggy back off her efforts.
Charlie Crist isn’t the issue either- despite my numerous concerns about him and my sincere hope the party would look elsewhere for a nominee , I believe he is savvy enough to be helpful to the party in the right circumstances, but more on that later.
The idea of “swing voters” someone who consciously splits their tickets or tries to balance some issues against others is a distinctly dated concept. Votes these days are driven by emotion on one or two big issues. Even if they describe themselves as “moderates” chances are very good they vote based on one or two issues where they are either clearly conservative or clearly liberal. This is particularly true in mid-term elections.
We’ve all been on this ride before. Florida’s Democratic Primary voters were told by party elders in 2002 that Janet Reno’s nomination would be a disaster for Democrats and that the “moderate” late Bill McBride from Tampa would be the right image for the party. Well meaning activists and elected officials pushed McBride down primary voters throats because they had been told he was the strongest possible statewide candidate against the popular and politically astute Jeb Bush. Thanks to this push, McBride won almost every Florida county in the primary with Reno, but lost badly in the three southeast Florida counties (which more resemble New York or New Jersey in voting patterns than the rest of Florida).
McBride’s nomination was disastrous for Florida’s Democrats with the GOP winning a record majority in both chambers of the Florida Legislature. One can only speculate on Janet Reno’s electability statewide. While many southeast Floridians seem to owe more loyalty to New York or New Jersey than to Florida, Reno was distinctly old Florida. McBride, on the other hand, spoke like an old Floridian, but lacked the understanding and passion for issues affecting old Florida, particularly environmental ones. McBride was a distinctly new Florida lawyer with little idea how to appeal to ethnic urban voters or old Florida constituencies. His nomination was a disaster up and down the I-4 corridor where he was badly routed by Bush.
This cycle was repeated in the 2004 US Senate race when southeast Floridians Alex Penelas and Peter Deutsch were considered “too ethnic” for voters north of Jupiter. Much like politics in northern states, ethnic urban candidates are often seen as undesirable in the rural and suburban areas of those states. Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York have long histories of nominating candidates from outside urban areas in their Democratic Primaries. The obsession of Pennsylvania and Illinois Democrats with selecting nominees from outside Philadelphia and Chicago respectively has finally vanished. From that we have produced Governor Ed Rendell and President Barack Obama, two of the most able Democrats in the nation. The 21st Century has brought throughout the nation a new emphasis on problem solving and ability and less of an emphasis on ideology throughout the nation. In this day and age Democrats are winning suburban voters that they lost in the 1970s and 1980s by wide margins.
But the obsession in Florida of nominating non-southeast Florida area candidates remains. Kendrick Meek’s Senate candidacy was doomed from the start among some party elites, not simply based on ideology or race but because of geography and an obsession with “swing voters:” a group prevalent in the 1990s but arguably irrelevant today. Then came the independent Charlie Crist candidacy and an opportunity for countless Florida Democrats to flee for an “electable” candidate who ended the race with 28% of the statewide vote.
The Democrats failure to manage the 2010 Senate election properly has led to the dangerously ideological yet telegenic and attractive Marco Rubio reaching the US Senate. Rubio has since become one of the most visible and potentially dangerous Republicans nationally with a 100% ACU rating and the highest score in the US Senate from the right-wing National Taxpayers Union.
In the last three Governor’s elections, the Democrats have nominated perceived moderates from increasingly conservative Hillsborough County, and in all three elections the Democrats have lost. The Democrats have avoided nominating southeast Floridians at all cost and have also managed to avoid fielding strong candidates from the Orlando area, growing rapidly and moving equally quickly into the Democratic column. Jim Davis and Alex Sink both had impeccable “moderate” credentials, that meant they were stronger up and down the I-4 corridor than let’s say a South Florida liberal like Meek or a North Florida “conservative” like Rod Smith, but neither were able to excite the base of the party enough to overcome fundamental weaknesses outside their home areas.
Democrats in Tallahassee and across the state seem to once again be playing this game. We hear about former GOP Governor Charlie Crist, who fairly or unfairly will be tagged as a job killer and also carries lots of ethical baggage potentially against a well-funded Rick Scott. A Crist nomination would be all good and well if the Democratic Party can prove it stands for something and advocates a positive policy platform. Perhaps Crist can be the answer because unlike most statewide Democrats he has in the past advocated a strong positive view of Florida and has not been shy about taking on entrenched interests such as the insurance industry. Crist’s work with liberals like Dan Gelber on Insurance issues in 2007 and 2008 should score him some points with partisans. But still, Nan Rich is talking about real Democratic values and it is both irresponsible and quite frankly immoral for Democratic operatives to want to push her out of the way with the disrespect they have demonstrated. Moreover, Crist is probably smart enough politically to realize the operatives in the Democratic Party are by and large unaware of how to run winning campaigns in this state. My thinking is that if Crist runs he may pay lip service to some of the Tallahassee Democrats who have put us in this mess, but will probably run his own campaign independent of those losing consultants.
Whatever the case may be in 2014, Florida’s Democrats need to become less reactive and more creative in their approach for all four statewide positions. Recruiting Charlie Crist will only solve one problem. If the Democrats continue to nominate dud candidates for other offices based on “moderate” credentials, the long-term malaise will continue. The beauty of our two party system is it fosters compromise and consensus naturally if each party adheres to a set of principles and are forced to govern together. But nominating “me too Republicans” furthers Florida’s one party status, even if the Democrats win for some offices. It is in the best interest of Florida’s citizens and the future of the state that the Democrats get their act together. That process must begin in earnest for the 2014 state election cycle.
Modern elections in Florida are turnout wars. The 24 hour news cycle has ensured that the former wild swings in the electorate are no longer a regular occurrence. As a result ticket-splitting has also grown less common and voters, even so-called moderates are hardened in their voting patterns. Unlike the 1970s and 1980s when many people split their tickets in the state and swung from party to party depending on the candidates and issues of the day. Florida Elections being turnout wars has become more and more obvious over the past decade. Given this reality their are ways for Democrats to react and embrace the types of issues that have motivated Democrats to work hard and turn out to vote for national candidates.
To the extent that swing voters exist in Florida, they vote largely based on personality and other non-issue related reasons. Democrats who continue to advocate a more moderate approach to issues do not understand Florida’s electorate. While moderation may work in suburbs of large Northern and Midwestern cities, or in states where the electorate is overwhelmingly conservative, Florida’s potential Democratic electorate is often concerned about issues such as environmental protection, gun control, women’s reproductive rights and other social issues. The days when Florida voters were obsessed with crime and taxes are long gone, but some Democrats seem to believe the way back to a majority status in the state is to embrace yesterday’s issues.
Florida’s Democrats could advocate a certain brand of economic populism that would appeal to the base of the party while encouraging other Democratically-inclined voters to turn out. But what we have witnessed instead is a party that has promoted candidates tied to the insurance industry, banking sector, and those who oppose strong environmental regulations. Bill Clinton won Florida in 1996 by running aggressively on gun control and environmental protection. Al Gore’s popular economic message resonated with Florida voters in 2000, and Barack Obama, perceived (wrongly perhaps) to be a liberal, carried the state in 2008.
So to review, Florida’s Democrats have been wrong so many times about “swing” voters. We were told in 1998 to nominate Rick Dantzler because Buddy MacKay was too liberal. In 2002, we were told that Buddy MacKay’s liberalism gave us Jeb Bush and we needed to nominate a moderate. Janet Reno, who generated enthusiasm among the most activists was rejected for the traditional institutional Democrat, Bill McBride. What ensued was a Republican landslide. In 2004 Betty Castor occupied the middle ground against Mel Martinez who, despite a moderate record as Orange County Chairman (County Mayor), decided to run to the hard right. Castor lost. In 2010 moderate Alex Sink, the wife of McBride, questioned President Obama’s Health Care plan, positioned herself to the right of Governor Charlie Crist on insurance and banking and tried to appeal to “swing voters” against a pathetically weak GOP nominee. Sink, like McBride and Castor, was defeated.
The Democrats should understand that the continued positive poll results in 2012 prove one thing: politics has changed irrevocably and firing up a party’s base is now far more important than appealing to theoretical “swing” voters. Part of the reason “swing” voters played such a role in the 1990s, in retrospect was because voter turnout was significantly lower than it had been in the 1960s and lower than it is today. Moderate/swing voters are minimal in numbers and efforts to appeal to them are offset by losing potential voters or workers on the left. The Democrats have botched up repeatedly over the past decade. As the field for 2014 statewide elections begins to form, let us hope Florida’s Democrats remember the lessons of recent history and understand why Florida performs so well for national Democrats but not in mid-term elections.
The Florida Squeeze 
The author makes a number of excellent points. I’d submit, however, that the Democrat who has developed the best model on how to win statewide is Senator Bill Nelson. He’s a native son yet appeals to left-leaning voters. Most important, he understands all of Florida because of his agricultural roots and family history in the Sunshine State. That’s my favorite background for a Florida candidate.
Rick Dantzler
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Senator, thanks for commenting. I agree on Nelson and if you’ll note his voting record which has pushed further and further left has not hurt him. You correctly note his Ag roots help him in the heartland of the state and allow him to connect with voters more easily. I think he is a great example of the way Florida Democrats previously won. The reality is Alex Sink ran much further to the right on a number of economic issues than Bob Graham, Reubin Askew and perhaps even Lawton Chiles did. But those three great leaders were connected to the whole state.
Rick Scott is a carpetbagger. I really don’t know why are reluctant to use that as an issue. How could he possibly understand Florida having not lived here long, not participated in Government until 2010, not have been on major boards and not ever have had to connect with voters for example in Polk County where you are from. It is not a “nativist” term but a reality that if you don’t know this state well you shouldn’t be able to govern it.
We have this residency requirement to run statewide but in 2006 Bud Chiles who is as much a Floridian as anyone, raised in Lakeland and the son of a former Senator and Governor was ineligible to run because he had lived in New Jersey for a few years while working for Christian Charity which was based in New York City, while Scott in 2010 was eligible to run even though he had no ties whatsoever to this state. Thus I think the residency requirement should be 10 years non-consecutive prior to running for office. That would have I believe made Scott wait till 2014 and would have allowed Chiles to run in 2006. People who are raised here sometimes have to leave the state to work in a big job like Bud Chiles did. He should not have been penalized for that and Scott should not have been rewarded for moving here essentially as a tax dodge.
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Call Nan Rich a Liberal but to me and thousands of Women across this state we accept her liberal politics. She is a fighter and she has a record that stands strong in the House and Senate of Florida. She is a lifetime Democrat not a flip flop candidate. I support Nan Rich with my time, my money and my enthusiasm. She will be out next Governor!
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I’m still waiting to see any evidence of Nan Rich gathering any support. She raised less that $200,000 during the last quarter.
I’ve talked to a few Democratic activists and they pretty much fall into two camps. One group either supports Crist or is resigned the belief that he is lock for the nomination. The other group is waiting to see what Alex Sink is going to do.
Does anyone have any evidence that Rich is gaining support?
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A few issues with this piece even though you have argued your points elquontly.
Nan Rich is a DUD. A 70 year old Jewish woman from Broward County, the worst type of stereotype about Florida Democrats. She is gaining support only among liberal activists, the same activists who don’t “get with the program” and whose selfishness cost us many of the races you list, particularly the 2002 and 2010 Governor’s races when we had GREAT candidates with crossover appeal contrary to what you say.
Secondly Crist you assume is smart enough to reject the consultants you claim are ruining the party. However even though you have not named names, eveyone knows who you are talking about and it has already been published in the Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald that he is working with the people you say he won’t work with. I am for Crist if Alex Sink doesn’t run. We will beat Scott regardless of candidate so long as it isn’t Nan Rich. Crist, Sink, Dyer, Buckhorn, Sieler etc could all beat Scott. Not sure about Alvin Brown as running an African-American statewide is unwise.
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That type of stereotyping/profiling Feret is specifically why we are in this unenviable position. What does being Jewish or a female have anything to do with her qualifications????
On Crist I was not referring to Ashley Walker who I have worked with before and am a big fan of or Steve Schale who is smarter than just about every Dem in the state. I was talking about other operatives and insiders, hanger ons etc that have infested every Democratic campaign and statewide operation in off-years since the 1990s, though some are newer players than that. I am not naming names, but those people have essentially captained the Titanic into the iceberg, sunk the ship yet lied the captain another ship that’s left Southampton and sees the iceberg yet still heads right for it. These people
If you think any candidate would automatically beat Scott you are totally naive about politics in this state and I can safely say you don’t know what you are talking about.
Also, we need to build a VALUES based party based on PRINCIPLES, not just a bunch of professional political operatives who seek jobs on campaigns or in the Governors office so they push one candidate or another based on totally faulty logic that ignores historical lessons and voting/demographic trends.
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Kevin you should really go to a meeting where Nan Rich speaks. She’s gaining support at the grassroots level fairly quickly. I grant you $ is a problem but her campaign is based on a grassroots insurgency that’s happening.
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It is one thing for a candidate to give a rousing speech that gets applause. But then what?
If all of these ‘grassroots’ activists are really supporting Senator Rich, why are they not donating to her campaign? If these people aren’t willing to open their wallets and make even a small donation, what makes you believe that they will knock on doors or make phone calls?
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This is your best piece to date.
fantastic! So so right it is sure to shake up the FDP elites.
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Thanks.
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This is a disgusting and absurd post that borders on racism and sexism. Yes being anti white is racist and being anti male is sexist. You and your “progressive” allies continue to ruin our party making election victories impossible.
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You’ve set the bar on racism and sexism in Palm Beach County, Doc, so not sure what you are referring to here.
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This website and other so-called progressive groups are costing us dearly. You still have authored your own selective rewrite of history. Anyone who really believes Janet Reno would have they were better than Bill McBride in the 2002 gubernatorial race should have been committed to a mental institution that means you. You have repeated this absolutely comparison clean time and time again and you should be locked away. You know what’s the most divisive figure the Democrats could ever have nominated for governor she was hated by the Cubans she was a left wing girl and she was absolutely out of the mainstream for Florida. McBride was a war hero was a former football player spoke with a southern drawl was a successful lawyer understood world Florida which is why she carried so many North Florida counties that Buddy McKay had lost and took a flight to Jim Bush. He lost because of left-wingers like you sulky and complaining you and all the blacks proclaimed they had disenfranchising the primary Without providing any evidence of fraud.
Like Jeb Bush who would’ve been beaten by United Democratic Party easily Rick Scott is finished and the Republicans know it. That is why Lenny Curry and RPOF have fought so hard to increase Nan Rich’s profile. Scott is out of the governors office as any other democrat get nominated for governor.. Ritchscott loses if any Democrat gets nominated other than the average which means that people like that this website and the people who support this website are going to reelect Rick Scott you are in fact the Republicans best friend..
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Your logic is so misguided. If McBride was so much more electable than Reno why is it he got the lowest percentage of the vote a Democratic nominee has EVER gotten since Reconstruction?
Explain how Reno would have been the most divisive figure ever?
Also please inform us how progressives are helping the Republicans?
It is the “me too Republicans” who seek to make the Democratic Party just slightly less corporate driven and dominated than the GOP that are helping the Republicans and the special interests that bankroll them.
McBride couldn’t even explain his own biggest issue class size, and despite winning all those north Florida counties you mention MacKay lost, he got a lower percentage of the vote than MacKay. Again this is not the electoral college, McBride carried 15 counties while MacKay carried just 6. Yet MacKay got 45% of the vote statewide and McBride got less than 43%. That’s because McBride so badly underperformed in southeast Florida and was KILLED up and down I-4. MacKay hadn’t done well in the I-4 corridor either but Jeb did not run up the kind of margins there that he did in 2002.
It would have been a great thing to elect Reno Governor. A courageous fighter, our first female governor admired across the nation. Instead we got four more years of Jeb backed by an electoral mandate and a super majority in the House and an increased Senate majority.
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Also the assumption that Scott is “out of the Governors office” is just plan naive and stupid. The arrogance of some Democrats never ceases to amaze me.
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So progressives should just vote for anyone with a D next to their name regardless of principles according to some of these progressives?
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While I agree with many of your points, as of yet, I don’t see a huge ground swell of support for Nan Rich. It’s most difficult in media expensive Florida to run an essentially unknown candidate for statewide office who doesn’t seem to be able raise any money. Isn’t there some other liberal/progressive with more name recognition who can raise some serious $$$ who can get into this race?
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Alex Sink….won the moderate vote by 23%……still lost to Rick Scott. I NEVER get an answer for why that happened. Even though I already know the answer, the “target north Florida” group is too chicken shit to say it, because it proves them wrong.
Come on, those of you who are defending the “moderate” or “center” vote strategy quit being pussies and tell me how come you didn’t win the election! If your “moderate” vote theory worked, then Sink would have won easily. But she didn’t. Come on, man up, explain why that happened. Oh, and here is the CNN exit poll which shows the moderate vote split:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#FLG00p1
I guess I won’t get an answer, possibly because it requires some next-level thinking, which doesn’t exist in Florida Democratic politics. Have fun being the continual national laughing stock of Democratic politics.
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What is your take on Nan Rich’s inability to raise money. There are state legislstors who have raised more money for their local races than Rich has raised statewide.
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That’s a real concern. If she’s the nominee the money will flow in, maybe not in Alex Sink numbers but it will come. Still it is worrying at this stage her inability to translate grassroots support into better fundraising.
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Nan Rich spoke to an enthusiastic crowd at the Democratic Club of North Florida’s picnic on Saturday. Her grassroot campaign is building momentum. The Kitchens Group, a national polling firm based in Florida, has her beating Scott 55 to 45. I embrace her Democratic values and her advocacy for youth. Give her time she will win you over. NOW has already endorsed her as Florida’s best hope for women.
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