Florida Democrats are already crowing about the opportunities in 2014 when unpopular Governor Rick Scott will be at the top of the GOP ticket. But Scott while a novice politician is learning on the job and quite frankly improving as time goes on. Recent developments, including the relocation of a major Boeing training facility to Florida (a big deal that has been under-played in Florida’s press but gotten much attention outside the state), a declining jobless rate and the dumping of a politically tone-deaf, unseasoned and arrogant Lieutenant Governor all points to the potential of growing Scott strength heading into 2014.
Scott’s politics and policies much like that of his Republican predecessors Charlie Crist and Jeb Bush have hurt Florida’s ordinary citizens. Unlike Crist but much like Bush, the current Governor lacks humility and has demonstrated an unhealthy sense of entitlement while in office. But in the past few months, Scott has begun to reach out to his opponents on policy and at times look above the fray politically. He still has a long way to go however, as these moves may seem like tokenism or an aberration. But Scott has appeared to be less controversial and political during the run up to and early days of this session and more focused on putting Floridians to work than may have been expected.
Scott will also have an advantage because in off year elections when national money and national organization is minimal for Florida’s Democrats, Republicans consistently have a huge advantage in turnout and resources. This is in addition to Scott’s personal wealth. Democrats learned a harsh lesson in 2002 and 2010 that you cannot nominate mushy moderates even against deeply flawed and polarizing Republicans and win in a turnout driven election. Moreover, one issue that can motivate voters and is deadly important is that of the environment and Florida’s clean water supply which is in long term jeopardy. Yet, the Democrats have done zero to emphasize these issues and while Scott rallies his base with calculated political moves, the opposition does little.
Off-year elections with the exception of 2006 have proven to be train wrecks for Democrats in Florida through the years. While the political climate appears favorable to defeat Scott now, it is very possible come next year at this time the winds will be blowing in another direction and the Democrats will need to rally around a strong progressive voice to clarify the differences between two visions for the state and the sixteen year record of Republican failure in running Florida.
Cronyism and corruption is another line of attack the Democrats can use against Scott. But my fear is that if the Democrats nominate Charlie Crist this issue goes away or even gets flipped against the Democrats. Also given the recent history that legislative Democrats have fostered a policy of accommodation with the GOP, I fear an ultimate soft peddling of the obvious issues of cronyism and unethical behavior in the Administration. Some Democrats are more eager to make friends with Republican leaders in order to pass bills or even get invited to certain after-hours events in Tallahassee than to actually define differences between two contrasting visions for Florida.
Scott’s unwillingness to accept stimulus money, particularly for high speed rail in the crowded I-4 corridor should be a campaign issue of major significance in the most important region of the state. Yet, Florida Democrats are unable or unwilling to discuss this regularly, with the exception of Senator Bill Nelson who will not be on the 2014 ballot.
I had a personal problem in 2010 that someone could be a Florida Resident for just seven years and run for Governor. I would like to see the five year residency requirement become a 15 year requirement. Florida is a complicated state, the closest microcosm to the nation as a whole that exists in the 21st Century. It takes a great deal of time living and working in the state to actually understand the problems and needs of Floridians. But the non-residency and non history in the state seems to be of little concern to many Floridians, whose own ties to the state are scant.
Rick Scott’s approval rating remains low and he is a lighting rod for many voters. But the Democrats who are counting on moving into the Governor’s mansion, need to recognize the limitations that potential nominees provide in addition to the difficulty of turning out voters in an off-year election. Also, as Florida’s economy improves and jobless rate drops, Scott should see some positive political impact. This means the Democrats MUST differentiate themselves from the Republican failures that got our economy derailed in the first place and provide a contrasting vision for the future of our state.
While polling numbers continue to indicate Scott’s weakness, these polls are snapshots in time and with a long campaign ahead of us, don’t be shocked if the Governor is stronger in 2014 than expected. Democrats need to offer a clear vision to contrast with the failed Republican policies of the past if they are to seize the moment and capture the Governor’s Mansion.
The Florida Squeeze 
Best post yet. You NAILED it!
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Someone needed to write this. You did. Congratulations. The Ds are acting like it is all over and seriously polls 18 months out mean nothing. Zilch. Wasn’t Crist leading Rubio by three times as much???? Campaign expose flaws in candidates and both Scott and Crist have plenty. Could Crist still beat Scott? If course, but it is no guarantee and the Ds have a better chance clarifying the differences as you say here. That would mean nominating someone else, anyone else, someone wise and someone with a vision for where Florida needs to be. It could even be a non politician, someone from business. This has to be considered.
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Dumping Carroll the best thing ever for Scott. He knew it and that is why he did not vacillate on the decision and swiftly cut her loose.
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I still think the Ds are so inept that Scott will somehow win.
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I agree that the DS are a joke. This article is right on.
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Anyone with $100+ million to spend is not going to be a “pushover”!!
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HE IS STILL AS WEAK AS EVER. 33 PERCENT APPROVAL!
HIS ONLY HOPE IS THE DEMS NOMINATING CRIST. THEN WITH ALL THE NEGATIVE ADS HIS $ WILL BUY THEY CAN PLAY UP THE YEARS OF CRIST CORUTPION, GREER, SARGENT (SP?), EAGLE, ETC. CRIST ALSO HAD UNEMPLOYEMENT AT 10 PERCENT WITH HIS CONSERVATIVE IDEAS! TEN PERCENT! THAT MAKES SCOTT LOOK EFFECTIVE!
WE NEED TO NOMINATE A REAL DEMOCRAT, SOMEONE PROGRESSIVE AND ATRACTIVE TO VOTERS. CRIST IS NOT AN OPTION.
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great analysis in this article.
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These messaging tips are right in line with Nan Rich’s “stump speech.” She hits hard on 1) federal dollars Scott turned down, and the jobs lost; 2) the deteriorating state of our education system; and 3) how Scott and his minions have been cutting corporate taxes (even though all the evidence says they do NOT create more jobs) by reducing important services to those who can least afford them. Time to elect a true progressive as governor!
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Ellis,
I agree on this…as someone who has gone through multiple off-year election cycles, turnout and exciting the base of the party is the key. While we have lots of hubbub out there about Governor Crist I was involved for his four years as Governor, his four years as AG, and two years as Education Commissioner and while I withhold judgement on whether his political conversion is genuine (if he’d be more consistent in how he presents himself perhaps I could get a clearer idea) no question exists that Senator Rich record and rhetoric hits the right notes to excite the base and interest those who haven’t turned out in past off-year elections to turn out.
Now many Democrats are pushing Governor Crist. The reality is that while Crist had a likable personality and was more approachable than Governor Scott, the differences on policy are really not that great between the two tenures be it on policy or on the level of cronyism in state government. It appears Governor Crist is prepared to reposition himself on several issues towards where we have stood for years. Maybe this is a true conversion and we should consider supporting him, but I have to see more real evidence of this.
Senator Rich on the other hand has had a consistent record for many years. I am not making an endorsement either way right now, but it is obvious which way I would lean if those were the only two candidates and Crist fails to prove he has become a progressive.
I can also give a long diatribe as to why Governor Crist’s political liabilities could hurt Democrats in 2014 but again, I am trying to be positive right now and hope It doesn’t come to having to discuss those possibilities.
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I agree that Crist is the worst possible option. An election between two Republicans means regardless the Republicans win!
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Democrats need to learn this Janice. When the choice is between two Republicans, voters tend to choose the real one. Then again Crist could cause significant confusion considering he has appeared as a Republican on the statewide ballot on four occasions.
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Ellis,
It is not about just being a progressive…its about being correct on the Medicaid, the budget, education, etc….She just understand the state. Florida is not progressive if anything your party is just the opposite. Crist? Are they NUTS?
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GREAT post! Scott is going to be tough to beat and his money may scare off the most viable Dem candidates leaving us with Crist and a crowd of nobodies.
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