At landfall, Idalia will be FOURTH Major Hurricane to make landfall in the state since 2017. Three have ironically been “I” storms, Irma, Ian and now Idalia. Michael in 2018 was the other. For comparison we had ZERO major Hurricane landfalls in Florida between 1966 and 1991. We had only two between 1992 and 2003 […]

With Idalia almost certain now to make landfall in the Big Bend region it will be first direct landfall of a major Hurricane n the region since Easy in 1950. Category 2 Gladys in 1968 made landfall in Homosassa in 1968, south of the Big Bend (and the closest landfall to the Tampa Bay area […]

The moisture tail and outer bands of Idalia are now battering southwest Florida, the same areas that were so horribly impacted by Ian last September. Meanwhile the strengthening storm has a pretty definitive path toward the Big Bend with atmospheric conditions giving it a clear lane by which to travel. The latest model runs are […]

Its rare to have such consensus between models but with Idalia the major models which the NHC rely on are in general agreement as of this morning. As a result the NHC can with some confidence forecast a landfall somewhere between Homosassa and St Marks. While this is bad news for the state, it’s is […]

Overnight on visible radar we saw deeper convection and a tropical system that was forming a definitive shape. This morning, the modeling clearly indicated a storm that probably will be a major Hurricane (cat 3 or higher) at landfall somewhere on the west coast of Florida. My greatest fear in the storm is that the […]