Southwest Airlines, the US’ largest domestic airline has flown to Orlando since 1996 and has carried the most passengers every single year at the airport since its merger with AirTran in 2013. But now with Southwest getting a makeover thanks in large measure to activist investor Elliot, Orlando is going to look more like a connecting hub for Southwest and less like the point-to-point operation it long was. Under Elliot’s guidance, Southwest which long boasted about not having “hubs” and operating a combination of milk runs and out-and-back flights now is being forced to change its business operating model.

This week Southwest announced double-daily nonstop flights from Fort Myers, Miami, Sarasota/Bradenton and West Palm Beach to Orlando. These flights in addition to the existing Fort Lauderdale-Orlando runs are meant for one purpose only – to create connecting possibilities.

In June, Southwest shifted a half dozen international routes to the Caribbean to Orlando from Fort Lauderdale and early next year, Southwest will scrap most flying from Atlanta to Florida, flights that previously existed largely for connections in a hyper-competitive market.

Quite frankly I do not expect this to work. Orlando much like most Florida markets these days are extremely fare-conscious and trying to fill planes with connecting passengers could cannibalize Southwest’s successful point-to-point operation to Orlando. Additionally, the new Florida flights are almost guaranteed to carry no origin and destination passengers. Southwest tried something similar from 2017 until Covid linking Fort Lauderdale with Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa to stimulate onward connections to Latin America and the Caribbean. That made more sense, but these flights are about connecting let’s say West Palm Beach with Birmingham or Oklahoma City. The same sort of connections Delta can offer via Atlanta and American via Charlotte. To me that’s not Southwest’s strength, but clearly results financially have been underwhelming of late and the whole Southwest model, perfected over 50 years starting in 1971 is now being blown up.