Populism doesn’t just “happen.” Populism throughout US History has been a counter-reaction to something that has impacted the working class negatively. William Jennings Bryan’s emergence in the 1896 Democratic Convention came after Grover Cleveland’s “Bourbon Democrats” had very clearly favored the monied interests of the budding Gilded Age over that of the people.

The progressive movement in both major political parties in the early 1900’s was a reaction to the Gilded Age, Robber Barons and the excesses of early-stage capitalism. Huey Long and antisemitic demagogues like Father Coughlin were a reaction to the depression and the view among some extremists that FDR was protecting the capitalist class and bankers (laughable but yes people thought that at the time). Joe McCarthy was a reaction to well, excessive alcohol consumption and the paranoid style of US society.

Enter Donald Trump. It’s fashionable to say he’s a reaction to diversity and race. That’s flat out wrong in my book. Does misogyny play a part in his rise and that of GOP-driven 2010’s-20’s populism? Yes, no question about this – and in fact sexism and misogyny are MUCH bigger issues in American society than racism, which tends to be overblown and over-hyped as a default position of Democratic elites explaining the rise of Trump.

The real issue is that beyond the sexism of the MAGA GOP, the Democrats have gone from being the party of the working class to being the party of the managerial class. Historically in US History the factory worker and office-based white collar American DID NOT VOTE FOR THE SAME POLITICAL PARTY.

When the Democrats began to realign themselves first with the nomination of Adlai Stevenson in 1952 but onward through the 1960’s and 1970’s as a party of college-educated liberals, the inevitable long-term consequence was going to be a loss of working class cred. But the GOP were still stuffy country club elites – for every working class type like Tom DeLay who proved to be among the most corruptible leaders the US Congress have ever seen, they still had multiple Mitt Romney’s and Meg Whitman’s.

But all of that promptly changed in 2016. The GOP became the party not only of the angry white male but the resentment once focused on racial minorities and liberals was extended to the managerial class- which by this time had largely realigned itself to back Democrats.

The reality is that while many GOP rank-in-file voters might be mildly racist, obsessions with graduate classes on African-American studies and diversity training at some giant Silicon Valley tech company has no tangible impact on them. They really don’t give a damn and I think most didn’t know what the heck Ron DeSantis was talking about in the primaries in his clearly race resentment driven campaign.

Most GOP voters that shifted to the party because of Trump are just trying to get by, and have bought into the MAGA nationalistic and horrible economic plan to throw up tariffs on any foreign made product and subsidize domestic industry (this is a ticking time bomb in my opinion- it’s almost like making war on yourself but that’s a topic for another time). DeSantis had no retort for this- in fact he had no economic talking points whatsoever that didn’t focus on racial resentment. That’s NOT what wins GOP populists now. In fact, I think Trump’s team led by Floridian Susie Wiles is probably concerned about race-baiting too much on Kamala Harris should she secure the Democratic nomination (though good old fashioned misogyny, a GOP staple is on the way in big doses for sure).

But Harris’ parents both being academics and her own long-resume in the professional world before running for office probably WILL BE USED against her. Is this fair? Probably not, but it is the reality of today’s partisan realignment.

The Democrats have become the party of the white collar worker and college-educated. The professional class- what we call the managerial class (but importantly NOT the owner of company class). The GOP has become the party of the working class (despite the fact they are addicted to rich industrial money and have fostered an economic policy that screws the working class and favors rich traditional industrialists) yet continue to keep those who own the factories in the same tent, along with the screwy private equity and hedge fund managers.

Something will give in the future, but for now these odd coalitions will dictate how 2024 goes.