Florida has gone from a plus 200,000 Democratic voter advantage over the GOP to minus close to 1,000,000 voters since the book closing for the 2020 election. Given Donald Trump won Florida by 3.5% in 2020, if turnout remained the same among both parties voters and the NPA split remained the same (which I personally doubt, I actually think NPA’s will lean MORE GOP than they did in 2020 based on the modeling I have seen)we’re looking at best, Biden only losing Florida by 10 points. It probably will be worse in my opinion. My guess is if current trends hold, we’re looking at probably a 12-15 point Trump win in Florida.

I am always hopeful that during an actual campaign persuadables move one way or another, but I do not believe their are many Floridians left to persuade one way or another – and this comes from extensive travel and interaction with people of ALL persuasions throughout the state in recent years, something a lot of the Democrats making decisions about this state have not done. My long-term track record of analysis about Democrats decisions regarding Florida speaks for itself- I’m not going to rehash it here other than to say the state is most certainly NOT in play for 2024.

My biggest concern about spending money in Florida is that it is money NOT being spent in Georgia or North Carolina, where Biden has a realistic shot of winning and thus winning the election based on those two states (and making whatever happens in Florida completely irrelevant).

Yet, here we are. The Democrats are targeting Florida. A new Florida leadership team has been named for the Democrats coordinated campaign. Best of luck to them, because they will need it…