Four the better part of the last 15 years we’ve begun to see huge shifts in partisan preferences nationally which have ushered in a new party system. While long time GOP-leaning suburban areas began to flip towards the Dems, the GOP made HUGE gains in rural, exurban and white working class communities. Such large gains, that it’s put several states out of reach for the Democrats.

This has not been a equitable trade from where I sit as states already leaning Democratic just became more Dem, while the traditional swing states almost entirely moved toward the GOP. These swing states are places like Missouri, Ohio, Iowa and wait for it… FLORIDA.

(NOTE: Georgia and Arizona are exceptions to this trend)

Democrats have fooled themselves watching the numbers particularly in the Orlando Metropolitan Area as Orange, Seminole and until 2020 Osceola, consistently moved more towards the Democrats in every cycle. But as a point of reference let’s look at the areas Hurricane Idalia hit in the state, places I spent much of the 1994 and 1996 campaign cycles driving around and helping Democratic candidates while I was at the University of Florida.

In fact this story repeats itself throughout the country. In Texas , there are dozens of counties Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis carried against Texan George H.W. Bush in 1988 that Biden got less than 25% in. Heck there are even counties in Iowa that Walter Mondale carried against Ronald Reagan in 1984 where the Democrats now regularly draw in the 20-30% range.

Taylor

1996 Dole 39.86%

2020 Trump 76.45%

Dixie

1996 Dole 36.82%

2020 Trump 82.70%

Gilchrist

1996 Dole 40.44%

2020 Trump 80.37%

Levy

1996 Dole 38.85%

2020 Trump 72.24%

The story of the four counties above where Idalia directly impacted is repeated all over Florida. In the meantime, Florida’s urban areas outside of Orlando have not shifted toward the Democrats in the manner urban areas have across the rest of the nation. For example, in 2012 Broward County was the most Democratic metropolitan county (counties of over 500,000 residents in metro areas above 1,000,000) in the southeast US for Obama- in 2020 it ranked 11th for Biden. Miami-Dade was fourth in 2012 for Obama on the same metric and in 2020 was among the WORST metro counties in the region for Biden. Pinellas was THE WORST county in the southeast for Biden in 2020 by the same metric. Obama had won the country comfortably in 2008 and 2012.

The trade might be helping the Democrats in Georgia and Arizona, while eventually making state’s like Texas and Kansas more competitive but it’s certainly not helping in Florida.