Clintonism is an ideology that has become the predominant movement within the Democratic Party – an emphasis on free markets combined with pride in racial, gender and ethnic identity. Bill Clinton benefited in 1996 from what was called condescendingly by smug (northern and California-based) elite commentators as the “bubba factor” but did in fact allow President Clinton’s identity as a white southerner with a strong economic message of championing the little guy to resonate in places where Democrats were already struggling. Here in Florida, Clinton’s team was able to study Lawton Chiles narrow Gubernatorial reelection two years earlier and expand on it to bring some white rural voters who preferred Jeb Bush in 1994 back home to the Democrats for one last dance.
By 2016, Clintonism had shifted its ethnic and racial appeal to a non-ideological “identity” type fell which holds that if you are of any non-white ethnic group, a women or an intellectual elite you should vote for the Democrats – irrespective of any other policy or issue considerations. Now of course the best interests of these groups and the nation as a whole lies with progressive governance – but instead of stressing the issue and policies that can make America more unified and egalitarian, the party, its leadership and operative choose to focus on issues of identity and personality.
The GOP countered with a campaign that was overtly racist in many ways and subtly racist in every way, stressing white identity using racially loaded code words. This led to a Republican victory here in Florida and the national election of Donald Trump – the first President since Ronald Reagan to achieve election in large measure thanks to race-baiting.
But the race-baiting of the GOP was victorious largely because the core progressive ideology and class consciousness that progressives have worked so hard to develop was checked at the door in favor of this 21st Century version Clintonism in the 2016 General Election. A multiracial coalition that fights against discrimination on all fronts including based on social class and geography can be built by the Democrats. But as 2016 demonstrated, not building a multiracial coalition based around economic justice is a losing formula.
Just where did the vote shift between the last Clinton candidacy in 1996 and the 2016 effort by Hillary Clinton in Florida? As the chart below demonstrates, a sharp decline in rural areas of North Florida and the interior of the state is partially offset by consistent numbers in big urban counties and dramatic improvement in Miami-Dade and Orange Counties. It is also worth remembering that President Clinton was an incumbent and the chart below shows two party vote but that many votes were siphoned of to Ross Perot – more so than the third party votes that went to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein this past year.
It’s also worth noting in medium-sized counties like Pasco, Hernando and Sarasota, Hillary Clinton ran far behind the percentages won by 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist.
COUNTY | H. Clinton 16′ | B. Clinton 96′ | D +/- |
Miami-Dade | 65 | 60 | 5 |
Broward | 68 | 69 | -1 |
Palm Beach | 58 | 63 | -5 |
Hillsborough | 53 | 51 | 2 |
Orange | 63 | 49 | 14 |
Pinellas | 49 | 55 | -6 |
Duval | 49 | 47 | 2 |
Lee | 39 | 45 | -6 |
Polk | 43 | 49 | -6 |
Brevard | 39 | 48 | -9 |
Volusia | 43 | 55 | -12 |
Pasco | 39 | 60 | -21 |
Seminole | 49 | 43 | 6 |
Sarasota | 44 | 48 | -4 |
Manatee | 40 | 48 | -8 |
Collier | 37 | 34 | 3 |
Marion | 36 | 47 | -11 |
Osceola | 63 | 54 | 9 |
Lake | 38 | 46 | -8 |
Escambia | 39 | 38 | 1 |
St Lucie | 49 | 56 | -7 |
Leon | 63 | 59 | 4 |
Alachua | 62 | 61 | 1 |
St Johns | 32 | 38 | -6 |
Clay | 27 | 30 | -3 |
Okaloosa | 25 | 28 | -3 |
Bay | 26 | 37 | -11 |
Hernando | 35 | 55 | -20 |
Charlotte | 36 | 49 | -13 |
Santa Rosa | 22 | 28 | -6 |
Martin | 36 | 50 | -14 |
Indian River | 37 | 41 | -4 |
Citrus | 30 | 52 | -22 |
Sumter | 30 | 46 | -16 |
Flagler | 39 | 54 | -15 |
Highlands | 34 | 47 | -13 |
Nassau | 25 | 36 | -11 |
Monroe | 46 | 56 | -10 |
Putnam | 32 | 55 | -23 |
Columbia | 28 | 45 | -17 |
Walton | 21 | 38 | -17 |
Jackson | 31 | 47 | -16 |
Gadsden | 69 | 68 | 1 |
Suwannee | 22 | 43 | -21 |
Okeechobee | 30 | 41 | -11 |
Levy | 27 | 53 | -26 |
Hendry | 43 | 50 | -7 |
DeSoto | 36 | 48 | -12 |
Wakulla | 29 | 51 | -22 |
Baker | 17 | 36 | -19 |
Hardee | 29 | 45 | -16 |
Bradford | 25 | 43 | -18 |
Washington | 21 | 46 | -25 |
Taylor | 24 | 53 | -29 |
Holmes | 10 | 42 | -32 |
Madison | 42 | 57 | -15 |
Gilchrist | 18 | 52 | -34 |
Dixie | 18 | 55 | -37 |
Gulf | 24 | 51 | -27 |
Union | 18 | 45 | -27 |
Calhoun | 21 | 53 | -32 |
Hamilton | 36 | 54 | -18 |
Glades | 29 | 54 | -25 |
Jefferson | 47 | 59 | -12 |
Franklin | 31 | 57 | -26 |
Lafayette | 16 | 43 | -27 |
Liberty | 20 | 48 | -28 |
The FL Democratic party lost momentum because of its failure to respect Nan Rich favoring Charlie Crist. Not even permitting a debate during the primary hurt enthusiasm which carried over to the general. In tight races the FLDEM Party’s cavalier attitude toward its base meant less support by that base. Men and women DEMS of the McBride, Davis, Sink campaigns were ignored by the party. This erosion was just enough.Pay attention to lifelong democrats. Charlie Cristism lost the state for Dems and this seems to be ignored.
LikeLike
We as Forida Democrats must let bygones be bygones. Charlie Crist is now a Democratic US Congressman and we need to celebrate that. We need to start building a bench for future elections with the help of our new leadership.
LikeLike
I am not going to let it be a bygone that a highly competent woman like Nan Rich was disrespected in favor of Republican Crist. This is not a bygone, it is a real fact and it has never been made right. I will never celebrate Crist’s rocking chair ads against Jim Davis. I will never celebrate Chain Gang Charlie.
I will not celebrate Andrew Gillum calling past Democratic candidates Republican lite. Most Democrats pay attention. Real change needs to happen…and belitting lifelong Democrats to get ahead isn’t going to win yellow dog votes.
LikeLike