Authors Note: If you’ve been following our coverage or any of the international media’s coverage of the unfolding events in Ukraine, you know that this situation is very fluid and constantly changing. As such, we’ll be giving timely updates to the situation, complete with an overview of the days events in this global hotspot and including links to sources if you are looking to stay updated on the events. As the Florida Squeeze continues to expand its writings on policy, look for more featured policy related posts in the coming future.
In the past few days, reports have been trickling out about a conversation Putin and Obama had on Friday in which a proposal of troop withdrawals was the main topic. According to White House releases, President Obama made clear that this remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take any steps to further violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. President Obama noted that the Ukrainian government continues to remain restrained and wishes to purse a deescalation of the crisis and is moving ahead with constitutional reform and democratic elections (set for May 25th), and urged Russia to support this process and avoid further provocations, including the buildup of forces on its border with Ukraine. The conversation is believed to be the first since the US and its allies imposed economic sanctions on Russia’s economy centered on its oligarchs, as I previously discussed. It should be noted that thousands of Russian troops will still be stationed on the border, and that is not an all out retreat by Putin. Far from it. More on Putin’s lie later in this piece.
Today, news broke that during a phone call between the two, Putin informed German Chancellor Angela Merkel that he issued an order that would “partially withdraw” troops from Russia’s border with Ukraine. Merkel’s office then broke the news to the world. Putin’s conversation with the German Chancellor came one day after Secretary of State John Kerry was in Paris to meet with Russian counter part Sergey Lavrov to discuss ways to diffuse the situation. With elections set for May 25th, elections that top Russian officials have called illegal as it “does not correspond with the terms of the February 21st agreements between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his opposition”, the Crimean vote for Russian annexation (viewed as illegal by the UN General Assembly) still fresh, and the recent (and controversial) visit to Crimea by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev tensions still remain high.
To top it off, Andrej Illlarinov, Putin’s Chief Economic Adviser from 2000-2005, speaking with the Swedish Newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, warned that Putin seeks to create historical justice with a return to the days of the last Tsar Nicholas II and the Soviet Union under Stalin. He added that Putin will eventually argue that the Bolsheviks decision to grant independence to Finland in 1917, was an act of treason against the national interests of Russia. He explained that its Putin’s view, its his duty to protect what belongs to the Russian people, his predecessors, and of course, what belongs to him thus, as we’ve previously discussed at the Florida Squeeze, Former Soviet Republics-Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States, and now even the former Russian autonomous Grand Duchy Finland are all nations that Putin can stake his claim. Adding to his insight into Putin’s mind, Illarionov opined that in the long run, sanctions play right into Putin’s hand in that they confirm his worldviews and the anti-western propaganda coming out of the Kremlin.
There is no doubt Putin’s decisions to call back a small battle battalion from the border is a welcome first step in an global attempt to deescalate the situation… if that’s even the real reason why Putin called the battalion back. The official release from the Kremlin calls the decision the end of a drill and adds that the battalion will be stationed somewhere else. Moscow continues to tell us that they have no plans to invade eastern Ukraine or anywhere else, however, Putin continues to say publicly that Russia has the right to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine (and elsewhere) from nationalists, which as we know, was the basis for his invasion and subsequent invasion of Crimea.
However, as was reported this week and previously mentioned in this article, Putin’s own diplomats including Russia’s permanent representative at the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) Andrei Kelin, has publicly shown as that the Kremlin prefers a weak central Ukrainian government with loosely affiliated regions and a pro-Russian figurehead at the top, as they view the upcoming May 25th Ukrainian Presidential election illegal. Simply put, Russia Ukraine that would be never be admitted into EU let alone NATO.
Putin’s big lie is his basis for invasion- this whole idea that ethnic Russians in Ukraine are in danger and thus it is his duty to protect them, is complete hogwash and a facade. While the the media focus on the geopolitics of the situation and the pulling back of one Russian battalion, one question still remains unanswered. Where are the widespread cases of Ukrainian-on Russian violence that warranted military incursion into Crimea in the first place? Putin’s manufactured broad doctrine, authorized by the legislative branch (The Duma), enables him to invade sovereign nations under false pretenses. Sound familiar? As this situation continues to unfold the west must tread carefully, an keep in mind Sun Tzu- “all warfare is based on deception.” Something, Americans should know all to well. The United Nations and the United States for that matter would be doing a good thing to publicly demand Putin show some sort of proof of any organized targeting of ethnic Russian’s in Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.
Stay tuned to the Florida Squeeze for your Ukraine Fix and forthcoming featured posts on specific policy areas and as always, thanks for reading.
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