Conservative activists are an interesting bunch. You can have the single most conservative voting record in the US Senate and be the toast of the national media who so many Republicans are convinced are out to get them, yet still be poured with scorn.

That is what has has happened to Senator Marco Rubio whose delciate balancing act on immigration has led to open warfare with conservative activists and publications such as the National Review. Rubio’s outreach to the elites of the GOP by taking on immigration reform could cost him with the conservative activists who were in love with him just a few short months ago.

In March I wrote that the challenge for Rubio was to somehow keep the Republican Party desperate for him while continuing to play his cards correctly with BOTH national Republican power brokers/media elites AND the fundamentalist Iowa caucus goers. Rubio had the conservative activists where he wanted but now his immigration reform proposals have caused a backlash with those who appeared to be his base for a potential Presidential campaign.

The first stage of winning a nomination is to be able to raise money but the second stage is to do well in the Iowa Caucus and get a ticket to New Hampshire. Previous Iowa Caucus winners on the GOP side include the televangelist Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. To say Iowa, a largely Democratic state at the Presidential level has a religious dominated Republican caucus would be an understatement and Rubio knows this. Thus Rubio has tried to show he can connect with this important base of Iowa voters by giving fundamentalist speeches and deliberately pushing conservative buttons with his rhetorical barbs. Rubio appears to have staying power as a national force but perhaps the deeper he gets into the “Rubio is the GOP savior” era, the more gloss comes off his profile.

Previous Republican “flavors of the month” have fizzled out almost entirely, while Rubio appears to be doing better. After Obama’s first election Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was the presumptive 2012 frontrunner. Then he gave his State of the Union response and has been under a rock ever since. A year later it was Chris Christie and we know how Republicans feel today about him. Remember after the 1994 election when Pete Wilson was going to be the GOP savior?  Heck, the Republicans even awarded San Diego, where Wilson had been Mayor the 1996 convention because he was going to be the nominee! Well Wilson’s race-baiting cost the GOP California for a generation and hastened the movement of Latino voters to the Democrats. Wilson himself didn’t last long in the 1996 Presidential Race and has been quietly marginalized since.

Rubio seems to have survived  previous mini-crises  better than other Republicans. His “sip watched around the globe” could have been fatal if he was as unnatural as Jindal, Christie or Mark Sanford but he survived it. He has also seen other Republicans implode on the national stage saying more or less the same things as Rubio has said.

But this immigration challenge and Senator Rubio’s desire to placate activists and establishment will either blow up in his face eventually or further prove the “Teflon Senator” has what it takes to be a Presidential contender. Then again when the hints of scandal that have plagued Rubio associates in Florida become national news no amount of A+ ratings from right-wing advocacy organizations or love from the GOP establishment will insulate him from trouble.

The ever evolving Rubio dynamic is one of the major political stories nationally and we will continue to watch this closely in coming months.