By Kartik Krishnaiyer
The continued hubbub over former Governor Charlie Crist’s next move is dominating political discussions on both sides of the aisle. The assumption by many is that with the Greer trial out of the way Crist is free to run for Governor in 2014. While this is certainly likely, it’s not a sure thing. In my opinion, Crist is only 70-30 to run for Governor. Here is why:
- Running for Governor may require Crist, a newly minted Democrat to navigate through a minefield in the primary. Recent history in other states indicates that party switchers have a tough time in Democratic Primaries. Long Island Rep. Michael Forbes, a former Senate staffer of Connie Mack’s in the US Senate switched parties in 1999 and was promptly beaten in a primary. The same happened to the late Senator Arlen Specter in 2010. Many liberal activists have complained loudly about Crist’s public role in Democratic campaigns, including that of the President.
- A loss in a Democratic Primary or to weakly perceived Governor Rick Scott would end Crist’s electoral career. A loss potentially to Senator Marco Rubio or another Republican in 2016 probably would not end Crist’s career.
- The President still owes Crist, correct? So he could appoint Crist as Ambassador to Cyprus (which has been rumored) or something else that keeps him in the Florida spotlight for 2016. Or he could even simply wait for a Cabinet position to open up and appoint Crist to that as a “fill-in,” to keep him visible in Florida but develop his reputation on national issues.
- 2016? Why 2016? Crist has made it clear he prefers the US Senate and Washington to Tallahassee. He has an opportunity to either take on Marco Rubio in a rematch of 2010 but this time wearing the Democratic banner in a Presidential year OR Rubio could very well be on the GOP ticket. Of course the Rubio-mania sweeping the Republican establishment over the past four months is sure to fade at some point. Remember Bobby Jindal mania that was the GOP flavor of the month in 2008/2009? Before that it was believe it or not Mark Sanford?
Crist has the world at his feet right now and can make whatever decision he feels advances himself the most politically. However, running for Governor in 2014 so quickly after switching parties may be a questionable move. Crist may be well advised to further enhance his credentials on the blue side of the aisle by sitting out the race, campaigning hard for the nominee and positioning himself for 2016. This may be even easier to do if he is appointed to an administration position or even as the face of the Morgan & Morgan firm on countless billboards throughout the state.
Throughout his political career, Crist has had an impeccable sense of timing. From his shameful attacks on the late Gov. Lawton Chiles when the Republican tide in Florida politics was unmistakable to his shift to “populist” as the GOP brand was damaged. But in 2010, for the first time in his public career, Crist seemed to misjudge the political winds. His remarkable 2012 recovery made him more relevant than perhaps any other Floridian outside public office currently. The question is if Crist will make the right move with all of this new-found political capital.
While I lay out the thoughts above let it be known I still believe Crist will run for Governor and that some candidate from the left will emerge as a serious challenger in the primary.
The Florida Squeeze 
He is running for sure
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He wants to go to DC. I’d support him against Rubio, and I think that he would win.
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It be great if we could get CharLIE not to run.
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The Jim Greer scandal is brushes aside in this article. When Crist’s hand-picked crony plead guilty, Crist took a bullet to the leg. Had a full trial gone through, the revelations about Crist’s corrupt activities with the GOP would have meant a bullet to the head. The so-called “low-information” voters are at the very least leary of Crist’s true colors. Keeping Charlie’s hope alive would be flip-flopping Rick Scott’s sinking pole numbers. The biggest threat to the both of them would be if newly branded Libertarian Roger Stone declares he will run for governor. Stone’s personal wealth, his national stature and extraordinary political savoir-faire could easily blast open the race into an historic event. I put a link below that reflects Roger Stone’s current view on issues. In my own view, he could make a very feisty governor not unlike Chris Christie.
http://eastorlandopost.com/roger-stone-gallus-snapping-campaign-governor
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[…] Some scenarios for Crist skipping the race laid out here. […]
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Roger Stone, WHO, or any other Indy has no prayer in Florida, Crist proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
The parties are just too strong.
However, the wackos at both ends of each party, Progressive Liberals in the Dems and the Tea Party on the Repubs have very limited voter control, especially in a statewide primary.
Most voters vote by “NAME RECOGNITION” and Gov Charlie still has plenty of that in a very positive light. People LIKE Charlie Christ. Christ is a very “likeable” guy. You can line up 100 voters right now and ask them about Jim Greer and the response will be, “Who’s Jim Greer”
And the negative stuff? Well Bill Clinton is living proof of how people forgive and forget. But Bill Clinton’s bottom line is that he is a “likeable” guy.
Our Gov Scott can spend a billion dollars on PR and the poor guy is just not “likeable”. He was swept in in a tide of Tea Party, Hate Obama, Obamacare, Anti-Immigrants, etc. etc.
The tide has changed back again…Obama has taken Florida twice in a row with over 50% of the vote. First time since FDR.
How many people thought a Black man could do that in a REDNECK state like Florida?
Scott just has a “dorkey” look about him. He’s looks like he’s not from here and he is not. His head would fry if he walked on our beaches!! And you know that saying about putting lipstick on a pig!!
Charlie, on the other hand, has this great tan and white hair, looks like a true Floridian who spends his day fishing, golfing, and surfing at the beach! And people just love the guy.
You can bring up a million nick pickey side issues where Charlie did this or that that was anti Democrats. But Democrats, unlike Republicans, are a much more forgiving bunch. No candidate is perfect to every side of the political spectrum.
That’s why poll after poll after poll shows Charlie wiping the floor with any challenger from any side.
And timing is everything. Look at all the crap that Gov Jeb is taking right now because everyone is saying he has missed his chance to run because he has waited to long. And Rubio has emerged to kick his butt.
Bush’s problem is that he is a Bush. And those of us Floridians who have lived under him know what a tyrant he was.
And the bottom line is this:
Democrats want to win! And if Charlie is their horse, and Obama gives Charlie the Papal Blessing, which he already has if you havn’t figured that out by now, the Democrats are going to ride Charlie to be your next Governor.
You can cash in your ticket now!
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