The US, Israel and Turkey have accelerated bombing in Syria since the departure of Bashar Assad. Israel claims it has destroyed Syria’s navy and increased its military footprint in Southern Syria.  

Israel claims no pretense of soft power. Should the US do the same?

To date, it has decided it should. It has struck at least seventy targets in central Syria. The US says it is trying to stop ISIS from using the vacuum to redouble its capability. Turkey has said the same but also struck Kurdish targets through proxies and used an airstrike to take out Kurdish vehicles.    

From the Great Power political perspective of D.C., Tel Aviv and Ankara this makes perfect sense. At present the US and Turkey want to shut down ISIS, Ankara wants to beat back the Kurds and Israel wants to secure its border with Syria.

But how will it look on the Arab street in three, five or ten years? Will it look like the Great Powers were taking advantage of Syria when it didn’t have the ability to defend itself? This will likely be the narrative pushed by Iran and Russia, who made large investments in the country. 

Syria in 2024 is like Iraq in 2003 plus the Russians and Turks. 

If things go wrong, will the prevailing narrative be “the Turks, Israelis and the ‘global hegemon,’ the United States, laid waste to their enemies when the county was most vulnerable?”  

The current actions could be followed by an internal collapse fueled by a proxy war between the Kurds, backed by the US, and the Arabs, backed by the Turks. This narrative could include the Israelis leaving the country defenseless by destroying its Navy. On the Arab street, Israeli actions have the full support of the U.S.       

In the best-case scenario, an internal conflict never develops. But the Turkish backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has already attacked the U.S. supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Manbij. Turkish President Recep Erdogan celebrated the victory claiming Turkey had defeated the “terrorists.”

Also, what will be the fate of the Shiite Alawites? There is considerable hostility toward those who worked for the Syrian regime as well as those who are associated with them.  The Syrian government was run by the Ba’athist Party who were primarily Shia Alawites. 

The Shiites represent less than 15% of the country while the Sunnis make up more than 70%. This is the mirror opposite of Iraq, which had a majority Shia and Sunni minority in 2003.

Rivalries between Sunni and Shia sects were the primary cleavage point in Iraq. The haste to expel government workers and disband the military in Iraq led to chaos. It incentivized Sunnis to enact revenge on the Shiites who were then in charge. While both sides killed Americans, the civil war between the religious factions tore the country apart.

The prevailing military faction in Syria, the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which drove out the Assads, was formerly called the Al Nusra front. It was allied with Al Qaeda and ISIS. It is a Sunni Islamist organization, which included ending the Shia run government as its founding purpose.   

U.N. special envoy Geir Pedersen warned, “The conflict is not over.  It will require a new miracle in the days and weeks ahead to insure that things don’t go wrong in Syria.”  

Russia has a naval port in Tartus and an airbase in Khmeimim. Iran has backed Hezbollah in the region for decades. Saudi Arabia will also want to influence future activity as well.

CNN’s Fareed Zakaria notes Syria is an Arab country being “shaped” by non-Arab countries: Turkey, Israel and the U.S. 

Turkish President Recep Erdogan appeared to claimed ownership of Syria’s fate. He stated, “we can never allow Syria to be divided again. Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new Syrian government and the integrity of the ancient Syrian territory will find us along with the Syrian people.”  

If this holds true, he could continue to use military force to combat the U.S. backed SDF. In such a scenario Saudi Arabia could covertly give financial assistance to the SNA or other groups opposing U.S. and Israeli interests.    

In the long-term Syrians will likely remember who continued to kick the country, when it was down. Some sectarians will appreciate these actions. But the average Syrian will remember when the country’s defenses disappeared, the US, Israel and Turkey took advantage of the situation to enhance their interests in, and around, the country.