Florida is NOT in play. I repeat Florida is NOT in play. Yes, I’ve seen the recent Poling but I’ve also done the math. By my estimations Harris would have to win somewhere between 60% and 62% of the NPA vote in the state to win Florida. For comparison President Obama in his victorious 2012 reelection won only 51% of the NPA vote in while carrying the state with the majority of the vote (just over 50%). So it’s basically an impossible task.

Additionally, unlike other states where polls might be close, the Democratic ground game in Florida is pitiful compared to that of the Republicans. But claiming Florida is in play absolutely does help the political consultant class that depends on handouts from national funding sources to keep their grift going. That’s why they want the Democratic activists to believe, that the state can be won.The math just does not work anymore in this state.

The same class of political consultants who missed all the obvious warning signs about Florida’s demographic changes between 2015 and 2019 that moved the state from purple with blue hues to burgundy and eventually to dark red now say Florida is winnable.

HA!

What should a Floridian who really wants to help the Harris/Walz ticket do, if they’re not interested in other races?

I’d say volunteer to make phone calls into Pennsylvania or take some weekends to volunteer in Georgia. If you’re focus is local elections then focus locally on Florida but don’t carry any illusions that the state is winnable – because quite frankly if Biden lost Florida by 3.5% with a voter registration edge how exactly is Harris going to carry it over 700,000 voters in the hole per the latest books (this includes inactive voters BTW, if you exclude this, the GOP registration advantage blooms up to 1 million!).

If the Presidency is your focus, work hard to make sure your time is spent in places where the Democratic ticket actually can win and where the electoral vote can be locked up. Keep in mind if the Democrats win Georgia and Pennsylvania there is no plausible scenario under which the Republicans can win a national election.

My other concern about Florida is how expensive a state it is to run campaigns in. I don’t believe that it is a good use of resources when you have six top 50 media markets in the state which will tie up tons of money. Money that can be spent to leave no stone un-turned in neighbouring Georgia, in North Carolina and yes in the three key Midwestern states should not be spent in Florida.

Opportunity costs matter- just think about 2016 and where money could have been better spent.