We’ve heard a lot of national media analysis the last 36 hours – quite frankly analysis from people who know very little about Florida or understand the rapidly changing demographics of this state. Or understand that we have a history of liberal ballot initiatives that did very little to impact the general election in the state.

My most vivid example of this is 2002 when the Class Size Amendment was openly opposed by Jeb Bush and the same day we passed that initiative (full disclosure, I worked hard on that effort) Bush was reelected in a landslide. Take 2020, when Trump won Florida by a substantially larger margin than 2016 yet minimum wage passed. That later example may have been aided by the one statewide Democratic officeholder at the time, Nikki Fried’s quiet opposition to the measure. By not tying the Democratic brand to raising the minimum wage, the party lost an opportunity.

in Florida that threatens women’s health and safety. 2024, should be a year of women in this state – my general view is we have too many men in public office in general and too few women. This reality is compounded further by the fact we have diminishing numbers of trailblazing activist women in office in this state. I don’t think Florida is in play (i’ll explain more below based on real hard numbers) but the opportunity to elect better Democrats very well might be thanks to abortion access and reproductive freedom being on the ballot.

In that sense abortion will be different than previous ballot efforts and for their part, Democrats are already tying Trump to the extreme law

“Donald Trump is responsible for the extreme abortion ban in Florida and those across the country. It’s not just Florida: Women throughout the South will face the brunt of this cruel attack on their freedoms, but what’s worse is his MAGA allies already have plans to take this agenda nationwide by enacting a national abortion ban with or without the help of Congress. The stakes in this election couldn’t be higher, and come November, voters in the South and across the country will head to the polls knowing that President Biden and Vice President Harris are the only candidates fighting to protect reproductive freedom.”

DNC spokesperson Jackie Bush. 

This rhetoric is all good and well but it was actually Ron DeSantis and GOP legislators who passed the extreme Florida law. And Donald Trump while certainly no innocent bystander has appeared wishy-washy on this whole topic, bragging to religious fanatics about his SCOTUS appointments while appearing much more moderate on the issue to broader audiences.

Whatever the case, Democrats are going to begin blitzing Florida with ads linking Trump to the extreme abortion laws in this state. While it might tighten Florida, it doesn’t overcome the fact that a state that had more registered Democrats than GOPers the last time we had a Presidential election now has a whopping 888,000 voter advantage in the state. In fact the Democrats registration number is closer to that of NPA’s than GOPers. And my own analysis of the most recent statewide elections shows a slight lean of the NPA vote towards the GOP in this state.

In other words, Florida is probably now a 1,000,000 vote advantage for the GOP all things being equal. That’s alarming. But how could that be? Well Democrats had about a 200,000 voter registration advantage when Trump won the state by 350,000 votes in 2020- now it’s the other way by 883,000. I assume some of the NPA’s who voted Trump are now GOPers so my math says a 1,000,000 although logically it might be higher.

How could this happen? For starters, just anecdotally, a majority of people I hung out with socially in Florida HAVE LEFT THE STATE SINCE 2020. Mine might be an extreme example, but still it’s pretty glaring to me personally. The most common destination for these Florida exiles believe it or not has been North Carolina, so that gives me hope that Democrats can win there.

Where I do I think abortion makes a difference?

It can be a killer for GOP legislators that voted for either the 15 or six week ban and are sitting in marginal seats. While the demographics have shifted heavily toward the GOP since 2020, we can begin with a baseline of 49 State House seats Joe Biden carried in 2020. Let’s say a few are now more securely GOP, that still gives the Dems 7-9 targets to pick off with angry voters motivated by abortion.

In the State Senate the Dems have a ripe pickup opportunity in Senator Corey Simon. That seat should absolutely flip if Leon County does its job.

Further down-ballot county races should be heavily focused on the increased cost of living thanks to Governor DeSantis mismanagement of the state as well as abortion.

While I am not much for identity politics when it comes to race, I do believe when it comes to gender it’s super-important. We have too many men in public office – period, end of story. We also have pathetically few trailblazing activist women in office. What I want to see in 2024 is a new generation of women take office and put the issues that effect women, children and families first over the state of affairs delivered to us by powerful politically-charged men who are often living in an alternate reality from the rest of society.