With both Dr. Cornell West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pursuing general election candidacies ostensibly running from the left, let’s go through the history of splinter candidacies from the left and their potential spoiler effects.

2000 Nader and 2016 Stein

These candidacies are enshrined in recent memory but I view 2000 and 2016 very differently.

Ralph Nader was an icon of my childhood and it was disappointing that he took the direction he took. In 2000, his presence probably cost Al Gore the Presidency- then again you could make the case the Bush team was so geared up to steal the election anyway, they’d have pulled it off regardless.

Jill Stein’s connections to Russia helped cement the loyalty of the anti-Democratic Party left to Putin’s imperialist war machine. Did she have a tangible outcome on the election? Despite her vote totals, I remain unconvinced, as Gary Johnson probably pulled similar if not bigger numbers from Donald Trump. Besides Hillary Clinton was always a fatally flawed nominee. Stein’s voters may not have turned out if she wasn’t running.

1980 John Anderson

Illinois Congressman John Anderson sought the GOP nomination and gained the third most votes overall in the primaries (behind Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush). Anderson however, was part of the dying breed of Midwestern liberal GOPers and was completely out-of-step with the direction the GOP had moved between Gerald Ford’s nomination in 1976 (where Reagan almost ousted him) and 1980. Anderson ran as a third party candidate, naming progressive former Wisconsin Governor Patrick Lucey his running mate. President Carter’s fiscal austerity wasn’t popular among liberal activists and some who had supported Ted Kennedy’s primary challenge drifted to Anderson in the general.

The ticket was bipartisan but also had a very Midwestern feel.

Anderson gained nearly 7% of the national vote, and probably cost President Carter wins in Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, New York and Wisconsin. But Reagan still would have won, though less handily even with those states in the Carter column.

1948 Henry Wallace

It’s amazing Harry Truman was reelected after a wipeout in the 1946 midterms as well as a challenge from his left (Wallace) and from the racist right (Strom Thurmond). While Truman was considered a moderate by many progressives, he had advocated a strong Civil Rights program (unlike FDR, who seemed cozy with the southern Democrats whom chaired most major congressional committees)which may have started the drift toward issues of race being intertwined into progressive politics. He had also vetoed the anti-labor Taft-Hartley legislation which was then overridden by Congress where southern Democrats sided with the GOP majority. But Truman had angered progressives with his aggressive foreign policy moves aimed at containing the Soviet Union. In the end Wallace almost cost Truman California but didn’t- If Truman had lost California and one other state he won to GOP nominee Dewey, the election would have gone to the House of Representatives.

1924 Robert LaFollette

In 1924 the GOP was at its most conservative point prior to Ronald Reagan’s ascendancy and the Democrats had a deadlocked convention where the Ku Klux Klan held sway over much of the proceedings. The two major party nominees were President Calvin Coolidge for the GOP and John W. Davis, a famous lawyer (who would later defend segregated schools in front of the Supreme Court) for the Democrats. Both were very conservative.

Wisconsin Senator “Fighting Bob” Robert La Follette had challenged Coolidge for the GOP nomination. Upset that both parties nominated conservatives, La Follette formed a third party called the “Progressive Party” which appealed to liberals in both parties. The Wisconsin Senator had been a key figure in GOP politics for 35 years at this point, but saw his liberal/progressive wing of the party no longer had sway or anything close to parity with the conservatives during the roaring 20’s.

A champion of organized labor, tax reform, antitrust laws and a supporter of the Bolsheviks in Russia, the Socialist Party which previously had fielded candidates in Presidential elections stood down and backed La Follette. The nascent regional Farmer Labor Party which eventually merged into the Democrats (hence why Minnesota Democrats are DFL, not just D) also backed La Follette.

La Follette’s third party effort netted a total of one state won – his home state of Wisconsin, but he won close to 17% of the national vote and was particularly strong in the upper Midwest. In fact, if you take the one party “solid south” out of the equation, La Follette won more states than the Democrats (one to zero) and finished second in twelve other states in the north won by the GOP.

The Democrats would never again nominate an out-and-out conservative for President. In the end “Fighting Bob” made his point well. He united the left and taught the two major parties reactionary conservatism was not the way to go- the Democrats learned the lesson and the GOP didn’t nominate a far right figure again until 1964.

1916 Alan Benson

The Socialist Party had hit its nadir in the United States in the 1910’s but Benson’s performance in the 1916 Presidential Election, getting only 3.19% nationally was a sign the party was running its course. In 1912, Socialists had gained 6% of the Presidential vote and 8% of votes for the US House of Representatives.

1912 Teddy Roosevelt , 1912 Eugene V Debs

Former President Roosevelt’s 1912 split with President Taft is legendary. In terms of mainstream candidates capable of actually winning the election, TR ran on the most progressive platform in history. Federal regulation on every level including an eight hour workday, environmental conservation (unheard of at the time), a national health service and a robust social safety net program, similar to what was later enacted in western Europe but NOT in the United States. A point could be made Roosevelt in nearly eight years as President previously hadn’t advocated the sort of radical proposals he did in 1912- a point often made by Socialists who saw 1912 as the opportunity to win an election. Many felt TR had moved into a hard left space deliberately to co-opt socialist support on behalf of the monied capitalist interests. But it could also be theorized that freed of the shackles of a political party backed by eastern establishment money, Roosevelt was for once liberated in 1912.

Roosevelt finished second in the election winning 27% of the popular vote and six states. But the net result of Roosevelt splitting the GOP was the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson. In 1912, the Confederacy won the Presidency of the United States for all intents and purposes. What they couldn’t win on the battle field, they won at the ballot box thanks to the Republican split (it’s no coincidence in 1924, the Ku Klux Klan almost got Wilson’s son-in-law, William Gibbs McAdoo nominated by the Democrats ). The less said about Wilson the better.

Meanwhile Socialist Eugene V. Debs took 6% of the national vote and Socialists won 8% of the vote for the US House. If you subtract the segregated solid south from vote totals, Debs and Roosevelt had over 40% of the popular vote combined.