Its rare to have such consensus between models but with Idalia the major models which the NHC rely on are in general agreement as of this morning.

As a result the NHC can with some confidence forecast a landfall somewhere between Homosassa and St Marks. While this is bad news for the state, it’s is the area of the Florida coast with the fewest residents per square mile, so that is one saving grace. One thing that is not good news is the approach to the Tampa Bay area will be close enough to whip storm surge and tropical storm force winds throughout the region and depending on the angle of landfall we could have some serious storm surge and flooding along the St Johns River in addition to other problems that a major wind and rain event could cause Jacksonville.

As a note on this, Nassau County has been one of the fastest growing counties in the US over the course of the last five years and this will be many of those residents first experience with a storm of this magnitude. Many weren’t living in Florida when Matthew and Irma both impacted the area. Heed local officials warnings and take this very seriously if you are new to the state.