While my initial reaction was to mock Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s candidacy, some longer-term thinking and analytical thoughts based around conspiracy theories are now dominating my mind on this matter.

The conspiracy theory holds that Suarez is facing an FBI Investigation and therefore is deflecting by running for President. That was part of my theory when Andrew Gillum ran for Governor – he was facing multiple ethical issues related to Tallahassee city government, so what was smarter than running for Governor in the party activist lane and getting public opinion on your side? So that theory makes sense for Suarez, but I am thinking deeper than that.

Suarez has twice (presumably) voted for Democratic candidates for President in recent years and endorsed Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Governor’s race. Yet he’s come out of the box as an ideological zealot on the right, and is playing to right wing audiences around the country. So what is the reason for this bizarre candidacy and its tone which is different than how Suarez has acted locally?

I have two theories…

• Suarez’s connection to the crypto industry means they may be using him as a stalking horse. There is also growing tech bro and hedge fund manager angst with DeSantis’ reflexively nativist rhetoric so who better to back as an insurance policy than a Latino Big city Mayor? I expect most of the right-wing techies, hedge fund managers and private equity folks to stick with DeSantis who has to this point appeared their stalking horse – but Suarez is a potential second option and a cleaner one from a public relations standpoint.

• Despite voting against Trump twice in General Elections, Suarez very easily could be making a play for Trump- engaging in a mission to undermine DeSantis in Florida and with donors. Trump himself doesn’t play three dimensional chess well, but he has in Susie Wiles and Roger Stone two Florida-based operators who I can see employing this strategy. The reward would be if Trump wins the nomination, Suarez is either on the ticket or a key surrogate. If Trump wins the General Election, Suarez is in the cabinet.

Suarez can rightly claim much of Florida’s economic growth in the last few years is down to what’s happened in his domain. As I have repeatedly pointed out, Governor DeSantis is doing a disservice to growing Florida’s jobs and economy with his rhetoric. Miami’s real GDP has increased 10.6% during the time Suarez and DeSantis have both been in office. Florida’s real GDP has not increased nearly as fast, and this is despite a population loss in Miami, contrasted with the usual growth we see statewide. So he has an opportunity to go at DeSantis saying, “I’ve grown with economy with business-friendly policies, you’re driving a hostile environment toward business.” So this works with either bullet 1 or 2 above as his rhetorical strategy.

So a week after thinking Suarez’s campaign was a complete joke, something that would register as a trivia question at some point in the near future, I’m now weighing why it’s happening. I believe Suarez is being used either by donors or by Trump operatives. But either way, it’s a potential way of weakening DeSantis and while Suarez isn’t a serious candidate to get votes, he is a serious potential player to undermine DeSantis messaging. So keep an eye on his campaign as it moves forward.