Tuesday’s news that Jeb Bush will likely form a Presidential Exploratory Committee sent shockwaves through Florida politics and the Republican establishment. Bush remains arguably the most popular public figure in this state, and as heir to the Bush throne, his family legacy certainly buys him credit with the Republican establishment. Six years on from George W. Bush leaving the White House, his legacy despite being marred by Iraq continues to be rehabilitated. Thus it is difficult to view Bush with skepticism that some in the national media do simply because of his last name. While Americans may not be clamoring for a Bush restoration, they are not exactly anxious for a continuation of the Obama years either. Jeb Bush should he be nominated by the GOP might look to a national audience to be a fresh, mature face when compared to the Obama Democrats.

This is despite his tenure as Florida Governor where he was the most conservative Chief Executive in the state since the short tenure of pork-chopper Charley Johns in 1953-1954. It may come as a shock to some Democrats in this state who were not active in the Bush years, but Rick Scott appears to be moderately progressive on many issues when compared to Bush’s steadfast and dogmatic conservatism.

His record as Governor aside, Jeb Bush has since the spring been taking a page out of the Ronald Reagan playbook and, unlike other Republicans who cite the late President ad nauseum, the former Florida Governor is making some sense politically in both what he is saying and how he is articulating it. My view of Jeb Bush, particularly on education issues, are well-documented. As a veteran of the bruising legislative and political battles of the late 1990s and early 2000s, the thought of a Jeb Bush Presidency should be an anathema to everything I have stood for for nearly two decades.

But in 2014, Bush is strangely sounding like a real grown up, not the arrogant, vengeful ideologically-motivated governor of Florida he once was. Like Ronald Reagan he is tapping into optimistic themes and sounding strangely reasonable. This of course ends when it comes to school “choice” where he still seeks to experiment on Florida’s school kids, using his allies in the legislature to push a dangerous anti-public school agenda.

However, on the national level, Bush has out done his one-time protege Senator Marco Rubio, who has attempted to recast himself as a policy wonk, by taking a “sunny side up” approach to issues. Rubio has become a pure partisan attack-dog while Bush, long the most conservative and hackish man in the room has remade himself into a senior statesman of the Republican Party.

A few of Bush’s new hopeful themes will likely run into trouble with the Tea Party should he seek the 2016 GOP presidential nomination. Included in these are his strong advocacy of immigration reform, his support of Common Core standards and his continued efforts to strike a more moderate tone on budgetary issues.

Bush’s credibility among Latino voters will give him an opportunity were he nominated in 2016 to make it a real race in Florida. Demographics have turned heavily against the GOP and a Bush nomination may be the easiest way for the party to temporarily stop the bleeding among Hispanics. Following President Obama’s long-delayed immigration action (the delay which I reiterate, I believe cost Charlie Crist the Governorship) the Democrats should once again enjoy robust support in the Latino community.  The GOP establishment must be salivating at the prospect of nominating someone who can help neutralize this issue. However Tea Party Republicans on the other hand will likely mount every effort to defeat Bush in the primaries based solely on this issue.

For years the Republicans have been a hierarchical party, where insurgent candidates generally fizzle out. That would seem to favor Bush. The new GOP, though, might prove be a differently styled party. Tea Party influence appears to be dictating that those whose turn it might be (i.e. Bush or Congressman Paul Ryan) need to be defeated. While this sentiment has never carried a GOP nomination since (arguably) Barry Goldwater in 1964, it would appear 2016 is the right time for the Republican establishment to suffer a major defeat at the presidential nominating level. This is in-spite of the numerous establishment primary wins in 2014 and the electoral wave that ushered in the largest GOP Congressional majority since before the Great Depression.

Governor Bush’s recent tenor will certainly do more to alienate him from the fringe elements seeking to control the process. Still, it is very possible Bush’s “Morning in America”-style rhetoric could see him considered a top presidential candidate and the heir apparent for the party’s under-siege establishment wing.