Last week, Kartik laid out excellent reasons why Charlie’s Cuban stance is heavy-handed and risky and above all else, exceptionally foolish for a candidate for Florida during an election year. He then goes onto suggest ways to soften the blow here. As usual, his analysis is brilliant, concise, and well-calculated. I read the same articles that are freaking out about Crist’s dropping poll numbers in the Miami-Cuban communities that backed up many of the things he stated.

But I am going to disagree with Kartik anyway.

First, Crist really had very limited other choices.   The battle in this election will be over the Cuban-American vote and Charlie has to chip away at Rick Scott’s advantage or he does not stand a shot.  Considering that Scott has aligned himself with the most conservative elements of the Cuban-American community, the only way to make this a wedge issue is to go hard left. He had to address the issue and take a stand; there simply was no other option to carve out a piece of the Miami-Cuban vote.

First, there needs to a solid understanding of how important the Miami-Cuban vote is. In this article in Real Clear Politics titled “Why the Cuban-American Vote Explains Everything”, the statistical significance of the Cuban vote is explained in depth.   Some important highlights are that in Florida, “Democratic presidential nominees went from 25 percent of the Cuban-American vote in 2000, to 29 percent in 2004, to 35 percent in 2008 to 48 percent on 2012.”    It clearly shows that the Democrats are chipping away at the Republican monopoly on Cuban votes and beginning to fall in line on the blue side.  Coupled with the fact that Obama almost captured the Republican Cuban Vote decisively (article in the Miami Herald here), everything becomes about securing that important demographic. Any way the numbers fall, this is going to be a nail-bitter of close race and this is the demographic that is going to decide the governor’s race.

Obama won in Florida because he expanded his Cuban-American voting base and Charlie is going to have to depend on similar numbers if he is going to win. Considering that Obama’s Cuban numbers were stellar and grew 13 points in 4 years, there was a strong signal that there was a trending movement left inherently in the Cuban community. Crist has to move to capitalize on that and the best way to do that was to directly contrast himself with Rick Scott. Consider this state-wide poll that shows that half of Floridians support the end of the Cuban embargo and the issue spreads not only with democrats, but also independents and Republicans. Consider the fact that this same weekend, Bob Graham is in the Tampa Bay Times explaining how Cuban oil drilling without the US embargoed technology is putting south Florida at risk.  Suddenly things are looking up.

To understand exactly how Rick Scott, who is not in any measure Cuban, has the advantage of the situation, we simply have to mention the guy:

Now, Lopez-Cantera was hired for one job – to help Rick Scott get re-elected. He appears to be squeaky clean, but there are some funny inconsistencies, such as his house seems to be the only one is South Florida that is not available on the Property Appraiser’s website, which is strange considering the man WAS the property appraiser.  Add that to the pesky rumors of his family’s shady affiliations to the militant arm of the Batista family and the lack of concrete information about any of them, he seems to be about a Republican as the rest of them.  However, it is undeniable that his family and allies come from the most hard-core element of the Cuban community, the side the is decidedly wealthy and influential and is never going to support ending the embargo.  Scott has firmly claimed this space and is going to hold those hardcore Republicans who vote solely on the Cuban embargo issue.

How else was Crist going to court this demographic? With Rick Scott firmly standing on the right, his only choice was to go left. Simple logic.

Now, let us look at the numbers Kartik is referring to from the Miami Herald article: “A super majority, 67 percent, say Crist’s Cuba position makes no difference in their vote between him and Gov. Rick Scott” 24 % say that this is their number one priority.” Crist was probably never going to take those away in the first place, but what he has gained is the undoubtedly expanding left. But check out these numbers released on Thursday – -53% of Floridians support ending the embargo on Cuba, with only 22% in support of continuing it. Independents (64/13) and Democrats (57/14) both strongly support ending the embargo and even Republicans (42/38) narrowly support ending it.   Ryan talked about yesterday.   Suddenly things are looking up.

What Crist’s team has done has done is simply make this an effective wedge issue to drive through voting blocks. Sure, he is going to lose a few votes, but they were voters who probably were not going to vote for him anyway. What he has gained is both an incredible amount of earned media, allied himself with such political leaders as Bob Graham, and perhaps chipped away at that important demographic. If you are reading this blog, chances are that you are informed about state politics, but let us remember that most of the public is not and need these sharp contrasts.  Wedge issues are an important part of politics and effective use of them can define the messages of a campaign. Was it a coincidence that Equality Florida and the Human Rights Campaign endorsed Crist while the Pam Bondi debacle was still fresh on everyone’s minds? While the Equality Florida endorsement stinks of politics, they also had to strike while the issue was already in the media in order to make an impact. Every one was tuned in to LGBT issues and that was the best time to have the biggest impact and make a firm wedge. The story about how Rick Scott refused to sit down with a reporter crops up and then suddenly the pictures of Crist kissing babies at the opening of his St. Pete office appear.

(Lee Atwater wrote the playbook on wedge issues – I highly recommend the movie Boogie Man to anyone wishing  to learn more.  Quite the political education.)

This race is going to be determined by contrasts and they have to be everywhere. Poll numbers are going to go up and down and while this is going to be a dirty fight, if you are controlling the message you have the upper hand.  Wedge issues help control the message and this is a good sign.