The subject of Charlie Crist fires up conservative Republicans but this piece by Jack Furnari of the conservative BizPac Review correctly assess the split between Democratic activists and the party establishment. It’s worth a read and it should be noted that Republicans have a real leans into how Democrats are thinking this cycle and are prepared to face Crist should he be the nominee.
Conservative BizPac Review reads potential Democratic primary wisely
Florida History Podcast
The Florida Squeeze 
I know you’re anti-Crist. That’s respectable. It’s up to Charlie to convince Floridians he’s a Democrat. However, Rick Scott won by the thinnest of margins in a pro-Republican wave year (2010). His victory was razor thin (something like 60,000 votes) when other Republicans were winning by wider margins. You have to stop looking at this as a left-wing progressive. Most Floridians are not yet as left wing as you. Among other tactics, Charlie has to convince Floridians that the Republicans are out of step. He left them because he’s moderate, not extreme, like Rick Scott and the legislature. He needs to run against the Republican Party as much as he runs against Scott. As for Rick Scott, Crist needs to make him out to be a mean, nasty, big corporate jerk that everyone hates. Rick Scott is trying to change his image with his teacher pay raise tour he recently finished. The problem is that teachers aren’t buying it. The EASIEST way to negate his “$2500 I-love-teachers” tour is to remind teachers of 2 things: 1st) Rick Scott cut their pay by taking 3% with the whole pension fiasco, 2) Just say VAM, “merit pay” or “Marzano” to a teacher and they turn bitter and angry. The reason for Marzano, VAM, and merit pay is Rick Scott signed it all into law. If you don’t know what VAM or “Marzano” mean, just ask a teacher or research them. They could be a potentially lethal weapons used against Republicans in driving up the teacher vote to record numbers. Please trust me on this. I’m a teacher.
While an off-year election may not bode well for Dems historically, there will be no US Senate contest on the ballot to drive up Republican votes (no Rubio!). It’s all about making Rick Scott out to be the bad guy. I know teachers who did not vote who say they will make every effort to vote him out. Dems need to flip just 30,000 votes and they are to be strategically mined by targeting cops, teachers, firemen, and other public servants whose pay was cut. The average person without a pension won’t care about the 3% FRS deal, so the Dem nominee (likely Crist) just needs to quietly remind them that Rick Scott cut their pay.
The average Floridian hates Scott. He has never had positive poll numbers. He didn’t even gain 50% of the vote the first time around. This isn’t going to be a conventional off-year election. I will vote for a reanimated corpse as long as it has a “D” after its name in 2014 and that’s how Dems need to think. We. Must. Win. Period. End. Of. Story.
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It’s not that simple. First off Crist has plenty of scandals he will have to defend and unemployment which was at 11% when Crist left office in the state is now down to 7.2%.
Republicans have understood that in off-year elections you run to your base. The two best GOP election years nationally have been when they have had conservative energy at the grassroots level (94 and 2010) that has led directly to massive gains.
The Democrats used this same philosophy in 2002- nominate the moderate Bill McBride instead of the liberal Janet Reno and we can take out the conservative Jeb Bush. What happened? Bush won by a record landslide for a Republican post reconstruction.
Rick Scott is unpopular, I grant you that, but the economy is rebounding and Crist’s combination of scandals and woeful economic record plus his inability to motivate the D base is why Dems should look elsewhere for a nominee.
Scott’s personality doesn’t lend itself to rebounding but I have seen plenty of officeholders across the country with similar poll numbers to Scott currently get reelected 18 months later because the out party did something stupid in nominating the wrong person or some other circumstance (ie. job gains) took place.
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The average Floridian wil understand that the recession was not Crist’s fault and the recovery is national, not just in Florida. Jeb would have beaten Reno. He was popular and always has been. He never had the unfavorable ratings that Rick Scott had. And again, Rick Scott barely won in a good year for Republicans.
Nan Rich is not rich. She does not have $70 million dollars. She cannot pull off what Rick Scott did. If we run Rich in 2014 and lose, who do we run in 2018? Both Rich and Nelson will be too old to seek the office. Deks would be wise to put several names out there so Floridians hear about them even if they lose in the primary.
Crist will not have an easy time but he can win. I do not see how Rick Scotf gets to 50% in 2014. That said, I hope the Dems can get Bill Nelson to run and then appoint Crist or even Rich to the Senate for the remainder of his term.
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The Florida unemployment rate was SUBSTANTIALLY worse than the national rate when Crist left office. Today it is only slightly worse. Rick Scott has attracted several new businesses to the state most notably Hertz corporate HQ and Boeing’s 787 training center. Crist flopped at all his attempts to attract new business, many of them high profile flops when competing with high tax northern states for new business.
This argument is not about Nan Rich. Right now she is the only announced candidate. My point is Crist has a bad record, will not inspire the D base and has lots of scandals and associates who have either gone to jail or could go to jail. As for 2002, Reno would have lost but probably would not have lost by 16 points, a coattail effect that saw Democrats even well funded ones lose up and down the ballot that year.
Crist is best advised to wait for 16 or 18 to run as a Democrat and working to elect Rich, another D nominee and other Ds to the cabinet and legislature this cycle.
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The housing crisis hit Florida harder than most places. Most people will understand that Crist didn’t cause that crisis. Jobs created under Rick Scott habe mostly been low paying. And Scott won’t come close to the 1.7. million jobs he promised. I am not completely comfortable with Crist but I will support him completely if nominated.
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HARRY SARGENT OR JIM GREER ANYBODY?
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