Democrats in Florida count on Broward County to produce the sorts of margins for the party’s nominees that can keep the state as a whole competitive. But truthfully that is no longer the case.

The county that once gave Lawton Chiles three times his statewide margin of victory and as recently as 2016, was a county the Democrats won by almost 300,000 votes is suddenly on its way to being a competitive two-party county.

In the 2012 Presidential Election, Broward was (easily) the most Democratic County of over 1,000,000 people in the former Confederate states. By 2020, it had fallen behind Dallas County (TX), Fulton County (GA), Fairfax County (VA) and Mecklenburg County (NC). Quite frankly based on the overall GOP trend I see in the area, in 2024, I’d expect several more counties to pass Broward. That’s if Biden wins Broward at all, something he probably will do but with a significantly reduced margin from 2020.

Dave Trotter will have some harder analysis over at his site Voter Trend later today.