Author Archives: Dave Trotter
On Election Night, I wanted to make a prediction, but it was hard. What made it hard was that we weren’t getting Election Day numbers from some of the largest counties in Florida, like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. Because of that, I had to predict the Election Day turnout in those counties, and predicting turnout […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 24: Last day of early voting strong for Democrats, but gap is tight.
With the exception of the new counties that have extended early voting due to Hurricane Michael, early voting is over. As of now, 2.69 million, or 20.28% of registered voters in Florida, cast their ballot by early, in-person voting. Of those, 41.93% were Democrats, 38.74% where Republicans, and 19.33% where NPA or minor party voters. […]
Here we are, finally, the last day of early voting. As in other states, early voting and vote-by-mail turnout has been massive. With 4.85 million Floridians casting ballots, the difference between registered Democrats and Republicans voting is only 32,489. If yesterday’s voting pattern continues, then it is possible that more Democrats will have voted in […]
As one party moves up, the other party also moves up. This has been the story of the 2018 general election in Florida. Days where it seems that Democrats have made gains, Republicans offset those gains, and vice versa. One thing is for sure, a polarized political climate turns voters out. And yes, this election […]
So, to start off, I have to admit something. I made a mistake yesterday. I accidentally took around 10,000 to 15,000 votes away from the Democrats in Lee County. An input error on my part. So, the Republican did not have as big of a swing as the model projected. They did have a swing […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 20: Blue Wave might not be coming. Broward turnout holds key for Democrats
Another day of VBM and early voting in the books, and another day where the Republicans increase their lead. Yes, Democrats are turning out to vote, but so are Republicans. And even though Democrats may have the lead in pure turnout numbers, they still lag behind in turnout rate. There are two reasons Democrats are […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 19: Record pre-Election Day voting benefiting both sides. Democrats have big problems in Orange/Osceola.
First, the projection map has been updated. It has a lot more detail than previous maps, including turnout tabs. So, enjoy the new map. Also, there is going to be a new model with new methodology out (due to the changes in pre-Election Day polling). The old model will remain up, but the new model […]
Overnight, the margin went slightly in the Republican’s favor. However, the overall trends continue to show that this is going to be a close race. As I have mentioned in the last two posts, it is a turnout game now. But how that turnout is happening is quite interesting. Let’s take a look. Turnout Summary: […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 17: Good Sunday for Democrats. Still waiting on Palm Beach County.
First, before I get into the analysis, I just want to say that we are still waiting for the early vote and vote by mail report from Palm Beach County to be submitted to the Division of Elections. You figured after the 2000 election that Palm Beach County would have gotten their act together, but […]
Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 16: First Saturday of early voting is a dud for Democrats, and Governor DeSantis is becoming a strong possibility.
Since the World Series is going on, let’s use a baseball simile. It’s the bottom of the 9th, and the team that is losing is down by one run. They need to get a runner in scoring position, or at least on first base, tie up the game. Instead, the first batter goes three and […]