Author Archives: Dave Trotter

Don’t judge Sanders chances by Corbyn’s failure

After the recent election in the United Kingdom, the expected reaction from American political pundits (who are amateurs at British politics, at best), gave us an he extremely predictive response to the election. That response; Sanders is Corbyn, Trump is Johnson, Johnson won, therefore Sanders can’t beat Trump. Of course, this is an absolutely ridiculous […]

Partisan shifts on the I-4 corridor

The I-4 corridor is considered one of the most important and lucrative vote banks in Florida and national politics. But the area has long been fluid in its political preferences. Since the 1960’s migration to and within the Sunshine State as well as immigration have changed the complexion of the region time and again. In […]

Florida Democratic consultancy class is to blame for electoral failures.

Florida’s Democratic Party elite are exceptionally good at winning primaries and controlling the internal narrative yet exceptionally bad at winning general elections and understanding the electorate .  When you predict the first election accurately over the “experts”,you pat yourself on the back knowing that you were able to accurately predict the election and beat those […]

Post-Election Analysis: Democrats “targeting” shows lack of understanding statewide elections.

With the election now, somewhat, over, we can start looking at the results and getting  an idea of what happened on Election Day. In the next few weeks, after the results are official, I will be writing an article about the Florida Vote Projection Model that we updated daily on this website. As of right […]

Precinct analysis: What is happening in Broward?

(IMPORTANT NOTE: Since the writing of this article, I have been able to look at the numbers in the Congressional races in Broward County and compare their undervotes with the Senate undervotes (something, admittedly, I should have done sooner). The same issue is happening in these Congressional races as it is in the US Senate […]

Florida Post-Election Analysis: A Brief Overview

On Election Night, I wanted to make a prediction, but it was hard. What made it hard was that we weren’t getting Election Day numbers from some of the largest counties in Florida, like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. Because of that, I had to predict the Election Day turnout in those counties, and predicting turnout […]

Florida Vote Projection Model – Day 24: Last day of early voting strong for Democrats, but gap is tight.

With the exception of the new counties that have extended early voting due to Hurricane Michael, early voting is over. As of now, 2.69 million, or 20.28% of registered voters in Florida, cast their ballot by early, in-person voting. Of those, 41.93% were Democrats, 38.74% where Republicans, and 19.33% where NPA or minor party voters. […]