Florida vote projection model- Day 11: Good VBM trends for Democrats continue

Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that would be speculation, and we still have to see what happens.

Turnout Summary: This morning, 7.17% of registered voters have cast their ballots. By party, 8.91% of registered Republicans have turned out to vote, whereas 7.38% of Democrats have turned out to vote. 4.62% of NPA/Others have turned out to vote. The Enthusiasm Gap still favors Republicans at -7.5%, a .21% swing to the Democrats.

Bottom Line: The projected gap continues to close. A generic statewide Republican candidate is projected to win 49.74% of the vote, while a generic statewide Democratic is projected to win 46.8%, a 2.94% gap. This is a .21% swing to the Democrats.

The Enthusiasm Gap mirroring the projected vote gap shows that independents might not be playing as much of a role in this election as they had in other elections. Everything is indicating that this is going to be a base turnout election. This might be a result of the gubernatorial election being a “Battle of the Bases” (the Gillum-DeSantis race is causing the base battle), or that the election has always been a base battle.

Details: None really. The next few days will be interesting to watch.

What to Watch: In the late 1990s and early 2000s, everyone talked about the impact of the I-4 Corridor. And yes, it still a vital part of understanding elections in Florida. However, I-95 has the possibility of being the next I-4 Corridor. The current composition of I-95, from Duval County to Martin County, shows that Republicans will receive under 60% in every county. This is similar to what the I-4 Corridor looked like in the 1988 presidential election (though state and federal elections looked quite different back then, as part votes were not correlated, which is why I used a presidential election to make the comparison).

Here is a link to the most recent projection model.


  1. Very possible I am confused but your projections vs actual today votes is very puzzling e.g. Dade
    Today GOP has 29k and Dems 28k. You project that Dems will wind up with 41k vs 30k for GOP.


    1. Because NPA/Others vote.


  2. […] vote projection models provided daily here at the Florida Squeeze by my colleague Dave Trotter have been invaluable to understanding how the […]


  3. For your sake hope you are correct but what is answer on your Dade projection on Absentees? Math seems wildly askew


    1. 1. Party registration doesn’t always equate to vote choice. Look at Jackson County.

      2. NPA/Others are not voting for NPA/Other candidates.


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