Tomorrow, early voting starts which will change the dynamic of everything. However, vote-by-mail numbers are showing that there might be 200,000+ more votes cast by this method than in 2014. Also, if the 2016 trend continues, where early vote numbers are higher than VBM numbers, Democrats could be in a position of advantage. However, that would be speculation, and we still have to see what happens.

Turnout Summary: This morning, 7.17% of registered voters have cast their ballots. By party, 8.91% of registered Republicans have turned out to vote, whereas 7.38% of Democrats have turned out to vote. 4.62% of NPA/Others have turned out to vote. The Enthusiasm Gap still favors Republicans at -7.5%, a .21% swing to the Democrats.

Bottom Line: The projected gap continues to close. A generic statewide Republican candidate is projected to win 49.74% of the vote, while a generic statewide Democratic is projected to win 46.8%, a 2.94% gap. This is a .21% swing to the Democrats.

The Enthusiasm Gap mirroring the projected vote gap shows that independents might not be playing as much of a role in this election as they had in other elections. Everything is indicating that this is going to be a base turnout election. This might be a result of the gubernatorial election being a “Battle of the Bases” (the Gillum-DeSantis race is causing the base battle), or that the election has always been a base battle.

Details: None really. The next few days will be interesting to watch.

What to Watch: In the late 1990s and early 2000s, everyone talked about the impact of the I-4 Corridor. And yes, it still a vital part of understanding elections in Florida. However, I-95 has the possibility of being the next I-4 Corridor. The current composition of I-95, from Duval County to Martin County, shows that Republicans will receive under 60% in every county. This is similar to what the I-4 Corridor looked like in the 1988 presidential election (though state and federal elections looked quite different back then, as part votes were not correlated, which is why I used a presidential election to make the comparison).

Here is a link to the most recent projection model.